Recently, the background news exploded with 'analysts saying that the cryptocurrency bubble is about to burst, should I cut my newly entered position?' 'Even gold is being said to drop, should all risk assets be avoided?' Watching the anxious questions from newbies, I recalled a saying: 'Market panic is never a new thing; what’s new is that every time there are people who take it seriously.'
In this 'doomsday' scenario, I see it at least twice a year. Just like in the second half of last year, negative news piled up like a small mountain, with talk of 'the crypto market going to zero' and 'institutions are withdrawing funds' filling the screens, many people couldn't hold on and sold at the lowest point. What happened next? Within two months, core assets quietly rebounded by over 20%, and those who hurried to exit could only slap their thighs. The current situation is essentially history repeating itself—emotions magnify anxiety but mask the real market logic.
First, understand: which 'bubbles' are real? Which are smoke screens?
The most common mistake beginners make is viewing the entire cryptocurrency market as a whole. In reality, the market has long been divided into two main camps:
The first category is pure conceptual coins—these coins have no actual application, and the team relies on making promises and storytelling for hype, with market value entirely dependent on capital relay. They are indeed the hardest hit area of bubbles; when market liquidity tightens, a 90% drop or even going to zero is not surprising. But be aware that these coins have never been the mainstream of the market; they are just tools for a small amount of speculative capital.
The second category is core value assets—like Bitcoin and Ethereum, which have real ecological support and long-term capital layout behind them. Bitcoin's decentralized store of value attribute has been recognized by many institutions, and Ethereum's smart contract ecosystem supports more than half of the industry's application scenarios. Their price fluctuations are indeed influenced by emotions, but the underlying logic is 'liquidity + value consensus,' which is completely different from the 'pure bubble' of conceptual coins.
Key logic: Is the 'underlying driving force' of global easing still there?
To judge market trends, don’t focus on short-term news; grasp the most core macro variables—liquidity. The world is still in a 'loose expectation' cycle: the Federal Reserve has already signaled interest rate cuts, the European Central Bank has long started a new round of stimulus, and even domestically we are maintaining reasonable market liquidity through targeted tools.
Remember this: 'Funds always flow to places with higher returns.' As long as the logic of global easing is not broken, excess funds will continue to flow into risk assets, which is the underlying driving force behind rising core crypto asset prices. Those who shout 'total collapse' either do not understand the macro trend or want to create panic to pick up cheap chips—real institutional funds never follow emotions but quietly build positions in batches during panic.
Beginner's Practical Guide: When feeling anxious, doing these 3 things is more reliable than random operations.
First, check your position structure: if you hold conceptual coins, decisively reduce your position to stop losses, and don’t harbor the illusion of 'buying the dip'; if it's core assets, first calculate your risk tolerance—if you can accept 20%~30% volatility, then hold on; if you feel too anxious, reduce to a position where you can 'sleep soundly,' and leave the rest to time.
Turn off the 'noise channels': those marketing accounts that only shout 'going crazy high' or 'plummeting badly,' and the anxiety-filled communities, should be temporarily blocked. The truth of the market is hidden in the data, not in the emotions.
Take advantage of the fluctuation period to do your homework: what beginners should be most afraid of is not market volatility, but 'trading based on feelings.' During this time, you can study the white papers and ecological progress of core assets more, understanding 'why to buy' is more important than 'what to buy.'
Finally, I want to say that the crypto market has never been a place of 'guaranteed profits,' but it is also not a casino where 'any wind will cause a collapse.' The theory of bubbles is not scary; what’s scary is replacing thought with panic, turning opportunities that should be profitable into a tragedy of loss.
