The window for Dogecoin to achieve periodic gains has shortened to just a few weeks; if an effective rebound is not realized in November, the current bullish market pattern may come to an end, and market focus will be forced to shift to the downside risk in 2026.
⏳ Key Decision Point: The weekly Bitcoin chart determines the fate of DOGE, with the Bitcoin weekly moving average acting as the arbiter of short-term trends:
“By the end of this week, if Bitcoin returns above $103,000–$104,000, a rebound in Dogecoin is expected; if the closing price falls below $102,000 or even $100,000, it will confirm the arrival of a bear market for the first time.”
📉 The market structure is sending warning signals
The altcoin craze has completely pulled back: excluding stablecoins, the "top ten dominant tokens" have fully retraced the gains of 2021
Reached the upper boundary of the multi-year channel: while it does not mean an immediate peak, it shows that the current rise is quite mature
High beta characteristics compressing the time window: Any Bitcoin closing price that falls below the weekly MA will directly erase Dogecoin's already narrow rebound opportunities
🔮 Technical indicators show conflicting signals
The monthly MACD has not yet crossed bearish, leaving theoretical space for a slight rebound
Market momentum is extremely bearish, almost declaring the end of the cycle
The Super Trend indicator is similar to the situation in March: at that time, prices briefly dipped below but did not confirm, contrasting with the clear sell signal in 2021
🗓️ The timeline is extremely tight, refusing to extend the bullish timeline:
"In 81 days it will be January... The current situation is almost impossible now. If prices do not rebound in November, then the rise of Dogecoin may not happen."
Morphological warning: Dogecoin shows a similar head and shoulders structure, with a potential surrender area pointing to 0.05–0.06 USD
If Bitcoin loses support: it will drive DOGE down to the target range of "five to six cents"
💎 The decision tree is clear: two paths, two destinies
✅ Optimistic path (Condition: Bitcoin weekly close > 103,000 USD)
The window for Dogecoin to rise has reopened
An upward trend is expected from the end of the fourth quarter to January next year
❌ Pessimistic path (Condition: Bitcoin weekly close < 102,000 USD)
"Bear market coming" confirmed
Dogecoin's target price is looking down to 0.05 USD, or even lower
As of the time of writing, Dogecoin is at 0.16297 USD, facing its most critical directional choice in the cycle.
Core observation points: this week's Bitcoin weekly closing price, the result of defending 103,000 USD, and whether Dogecoin can achieve a reversal in November. Any breakout direction will determine whether DOGE starts a year-end offensive or enters a prolonged bear market prematurely.