Bitcoin has fallen below $100,000! Friends, is it a crisis or an opportunity?

Hello everyone, I am Lao Li. I just came across a heavyweight piece of news: Bitcoin plummeted by 7.4%! It directly broke the $100,000 mark, which hasn't happened since June this year! What's even more heartbreaking is that on-chain data shows that long-term holders have sold 400,000 Bitcoins worth about $45 billion in the past month—this is the real trigger for this round of decline.

Behind the plunge are three "black hands"

First, long-term players are collectively retreating. These "old bones" who have held coins for years are suddenly selling off in large quantities, indicating they feel the price is right or have sensed risk. Second, the chaos in American politics adds to the turmoil. The government shutdown lasted for 36 days, and the "Crypto Market Structure Bill" might be delayed until 2026, creating policy uncertainty that prevents institutions from entering the market. Third, the spot ETF has cooled down. Citibank data shows that since October, ETF inflows have significantly slowed, and institutional enthusiasm has noticeably waned.

Can we really catch the bottom now?

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is approaching the oversold zone, and the RSI indicator shows signs of stabilization, but there hasn't been a clear signal of a bottom yet. Historical experience tells us that the bottom often needs to go through a process of "spot market deleveraging"—simply put, this means panic sellers cutting losses and releasing selling pressure completely.

Lao Li gives you three practical suggestions

Don’t rush to catch the falling knife. Wait for the daily line to show a long lower shadow or a bottom divergence pattern before considering building positions in batches; it's better to earn less than to catch it halfway up the mountain.

Pay attention to two key signals: ETF daily net inflow turning positive or the U.S. government reopening. These two are the hard indicators of a trend reversal.

Position management must be strict. If you have holdings now, reduce your position when rebounding to the $103,000-$105,000 pressure zone; those with no positions should test the waters with small funds, setting a stop loss below $96,000.

The crypto world is never short of opportunities; what’s lacking is the capital to survive until the opportunity comes. This plunge can actually filter out a group of leveraged gamblers, which is not a bad thing for market health. Remember Lao Li's words: Bull markets are born in pessimism, grow in skepticism, and die in euphoria. Let’s remain patient and watch the changes!