A sharp drop does not mean a bottom, and a rebound is not a bottom—true reversals always start with increased volume.

Recently, the performance of BNB has really left many people feeling disheartened. It has been a step-by-step decline with no decent rebounds, and key support levels are being breached one after another, causing market sentiment to freeze. This morning it dropped to a low of 878 dollars, and although it has rebounded to around 945 now, the overall trend remains weak.

Why has it dropped like this?

The news is all negative:
1️⃣ The U.S. government shutdown breaks historical records, and market risk aversion rises;
2️⃣ The U.S. Treasury is issuing short-term bonds at an alarming rate, sucking up market liquidity;
3️⃣ The Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction will only end on December 1st, and the funding situation continues to tighten;
4️⃣ Outflows from cryptocurrency ETFs, institutions are also fleeing.

To put it bluntly, the market has run out of money, funds are withdrawing from high-risk assets (like cryptocurrencies and US stocks), and ETH has become the target of selling.

Technical aspect: What position are we currently in?

From the chart:

  • Support level: $930 (key short-term support, breaking below may continue to decline)

  • Resistance level: $1000 (must stabilize here to discuss a rebound)

  • Bull-bear dividing line: $1080 (only a significant breakout here may reverse the trend)

Currently, BNB is still operating in a downward channel, the rebound is weak, and trading volume has not significantly increased. The BOLL band is opening downwards, and the price is struggling near the lower Bollinger band, indicating that bears are still dominant.

Personal view from Shen Ce:

I don't like ambiguity. The current market sentiment has reached a freezing point, but freezing does not mean an immediate reversal. On the news front, the US government shutdown has not ended, dollar liquidity is drying up, and the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction will only end on December 1st—these are all heavy burdens on the market. Only when the US government officially restarts will it signal a short-term bottom. Will tonight's small non-farm ADP data bring any surprises to the market? Pay attention to Shen Ce, and be seated at 21:15 tonight in Shen Ce Village's small square; Shen Ce will provide a comprehensive analysis and instructions at the first moment, seizing every opportunity! Regardless of the outcome, remember: data is just a catalyst; the change in trend ultimately depends on the coordination of price and trading volume.

Do you have such a confusion now? Clearly, the direction is correct, but you can't get the final result; when the direction is wrong, you still hold on. This is your overall loss state because you cannot grasp the timing, seeing a little profit and thinking of running immediately, fearing that if you run slowly, you will give it back. Maybe your market intuition is right, but you lack a guide who can remind you when to enter the market and when to run—Shen Ce.

Remember: make money in a bull market, earn coins in a bear market. In the current market, cash is king; wait for the market to give clear signals before taking action.#加密市场回调