While Polymarket is attracting all the attention in the prediction market space, another giant in the crypto industry is quietly preparing a unique path. According to reports from Bloomberg, the Gemini exchange of the Winklevoss brothers is planning to launch its own prediction market platform.
But this is not a direct competitor to Polymarket. Their strategy is entirely different.
📜 Part 1 - Context: Gemini's Plan
According to sources, Gemini is developing an 'event contracts' platform under a new entity called Gemini Foundation.
The most significant and distinguishing point in this plan is the target customer base. Instead of aiming at retail traders like Polymarket, the Gemini Foundation will be designed to serve professional trading firms and institutional clients.
This is a strategic move, indicating that Gemini wants to create a regulatory-compliant and 'Wall Street'-class playground for one of the hottest niches in crypto today.
🧠 Part 2 - In-depth Analysis: A Unique Path, Avoiding Pitfalls
Why target the institutional sector?
The answer lies in the legal context. Prediction markets, particularly those allowing bets on political events, are always in the crosshairs of U.S. regulators. Both Polymarket and Kalshi have previously faced legal actions from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
By targeting institutional customers, Gemini appears to be trying to create a regulatory-compliant product from the start, avoiding the legal troubles that previous competitors have faced. They are not building a 'casino' for the public, but rather a complex financial tool for professionals.
This move is also a strong validation for the entire prediction market sector, showing that its potential is large enough to attract the interest of giants looking to bridge the flow of capital from traditional finance.
🏁 Conclusion:
Gemini's plan is not just about launching a new product. It is a signal of the maturation of the prediction market niche. The game is gradually diversifying, with one side being a playground for the general public and the other side being products 'tailored' specifically for Wall Street. Gemini's involvement could legitimize and elevate the entire field to a new height.
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