When the whales quietly dive into the deep sea, retail investors should not blindly follow, but learn to see the direction in the storm.

In the past two days, the cryptocurrency market has stirred up a dark current—whales bought 320,000 ETH in one go, worth over 1.1 billion dollars! As soon as the news broke, many people excitedly shouted: 'The bottom is here! The opportunity to buy at the bottom has arrived!' But is the truth really that simple? As an analyst who has been crawling through the blockchain field for many years, I want to say: the market never follows a script, and blindly following the trend is often the beginning of a tragedy.

The whale's bottom fishing, is it really a signal that the market has bottomed out?

The large-scale purchases by whales indeed indicate that some large funds believe the price of ETH has entered the 'undervalued range.' However, the problem is that the strategies of whales are often more complex than retail investors imagine—they may build their positions in batches or use derivatives to hedge risks. Drawing a conclusion that 'the market has bottomed' based solely on one piece of data is akin to gambling.

Moreover, the current macro environment is not friendly:

The U.S. government shutdown crisis remains unresolved: the liquidity of the dollar continues to tighten, with funds flowing like a tightened faucet, causing global assets to 'bleed.'

The Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction continues until December: can the market hold out until then? Looking at the correlated decline of U.S. stocks, gold, and even Bitcoin, the answer is not optimistic.

Bulls have not yet 'surrendered': the funding rate of mainstream coins is still positive, indicating that there are too many bullish people—this is precisely the 'fuel' that bears love. Once sentiment reverses, selling pressure will come crashing down like an avalanche.

Where are the opportunities for retail investors? Remember these three iron rules!

In the face of the 'performance' of whales, how should retail investors respond? My advice is: do not predict the market, but respond to the market.

Lightly test the waters, keep your ammo:
Whales can withstand volatility, but you cannot. Divide your funds into 10 parts, invest only 1 part each time, and add more when the price drops. Remember, staying alive gives you a chance.

Pay attention to the 'fear index':
When market fear reaches an extreme (for example, when funding rates turn negative and liquidation volumes surge), it is often a precursor to a rebound. At this point, taking action has a higher win rate.

Learn to hedge risks:
If you hold ETH, consider opening a small short position to hedge during a rebound. This is not being bearish; it is insuring your assets.

My viewpoint: The bottom is 'ground out,' not 'guessed out.'

The market will never immediately reverse just because whales buy in. A true bottom needs to meet three conditions:

Macroeconomic negatives have all been exhausted.

Most retail investors completely 'lie flat' or even cut losses.

The funding rate has turned negative, and bears are in control.

And now, none of these signals have appeared. So, don’t rush to go all in; patient waiting is the key.

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Remember: Bull markets are born in pessimism, grow in skepticism, and end in euphoria—and right now, we are on the edge of 'skepticism.'#加密市场回调