$BTC /USDT Probability of respecting 105,000 USDT: ~70 %
The price has already touched that zone and rebounded.
The volume of bearish liquidations was high, suggesting "excess fear."
There is still no extreme selling volume or clear break of support.
Probability of additional drop (breaking 105,000): ~30 %
If the CVD continues to fall (-244 → -300) and the ADX rises > 30, then another phase would come down to ≈ 103 k.
The market is trying to stabilize between 105,000 and 109,000 USDT.
If the price stays above 106,000 USDT and forms a strong green candle for 4 hours with volume, the rebound could take it to 108.5 – 109.5 k first.
As long as there is no 4-hour close below 105,000, that level is being respected as local support.
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