Hello everyone, I am Fuqi, your old friend in the crypto world, and also a senior financial analyst with many years of experience.
This morning, I was staring at the one-hour K-line chart of BTC, and my heart skipped a beat—MACD white and yellow lines are close to the zero axis, RSI is weak, this market feels like the calm before a storm! Then I checked the news, and thousands of BTC have been withdrawn from exchanges, are big players quietly leaving? Don't panic, let me break this down in simple terms, help you see the future trends clearly, and share some practical tips on trading. There is a significant suspense at the end of the article, which will definitely enlighten you!
Current market situation: technical signals are bearish, a short-term rebound may occur before a decline.
From the one-hour candlestick chart, BTC is currently stuck at the key level around 109820, with the resistance level above at 113590 like a mountain, and the support level below at 106300 is a lifeline. The MACD white and yellow lines are close to the zero axis, and the volume is shrinking, indicating that both bulls and bears are 'lying flat and waiting'; the RSI indicator is weak, like a person who is tired and gasping for breath. The daily trend is bearish, and the one-hour chart is also starting to fall. My judgment: the market may first have a slight pullback (for example, a rebound to around 111000), giving retail investors the illusion of a 'buying opportunity', and then quickly drop. Once it breaks below this key level of 109820, the bears will gain strength, targeting 106300, and if it breaks that level, we might even see 103528.
Why do I think this way? Because I have experienced too many similar scenarios—last year around this time, BTC dropped 15% in a week under similar signals! I have a fan, Xiao Li, who blindly chased after buying when he saw the weak RSI last month, and as a result, he got trapped at 109000, losing 20%. A lesson: technical indicators are not fortune-telling; they are a game of probability and must be combined with timing.
News adds chaos: large holders are selling, and retail investors should be cautious.
Looking at the news, in the past 24 hours, there was a net outflow of 4841 BTC from CEX, with Coinbase Pro experiencing the most outflow, indicating that large holders may be quietly reducing their holdings, while the accumulation trend continues. However, Binance has inflows, indicating that there are still 'warriors' taking over. It’s like a tug-of-war—large holders are letting go, and retail investors are hanging on. My view is that net outflows are usually a bearish signal, which may increase downward pressure in the short term, but don’t panic; news is just auxiliary; the key is still whether technical levels break.
What should retail investors do? Fuqi teaches you three tricks for trading cryptocurrencies.
As a retail investor, you may be feeling anxious: should you cut losses or hold on? Listen to me: trading cryptocurrencies is not gambling; it's a strategy game!
First, position management: never go all in. As I often say, the '333 rule'—30% of funds for short-term, 30% for medium to long-term, and 40% kept as backup. For example, if BTC falls below 109820, you can reduce your position to 30% to avoid liquidation risk.
Second, set stop losses and take profits: set a stop loss at 109820 and take profit at 106300, so you can minimize losses and maximize gains.
Third, follow the trend: if the daily trend is bearish, don’t go against the trend trying to catch a bottom; wait for clear signals, for example, when the MACD golden cross reappears, then take action.
For example, my villager Xiao Wang used this method last week to place orders at key levels, avoiding a wave of decline and making a small profit of 5%. Remember, patience is more important than luck!
There might be a 'black swan' next week, don’t miss out on following Fuqi.
Today’s analysis ends here, but there’s a twist—next week, the U.S. may announce inflation data, which often makes BTC ride a roller coaster! How will it specifically impact? I will post an in-depth report tomorrow to reveal the hidden secrets. Want to know how to layout in advance? Follow me Fuqi, join Fuqi Village, I share real-time strategies every day, taking you from a novice to an expert!
Do you find it useful? Hit follow, share it with friends, and let’s dig for gold in the crypto world together! I’m Fuqi, see you next time! I’m monitoring the market 24/7, ready to send out news to the followers who have paid attention to me! Follow me, find me, and be the first to know the news from the crypto circle!
