Bitcoin has officially closed October 2025 at –3.67%, and while the drop may look small, history suggests this kind of red October is not something to ignore. The last time BTC printed a similar pattern was October 2018, and what followed was brutal:

  • November 2018: –36.57%

  • December 2018: –5.15%

    ✅ That was the capitulation phase of the cycle.

Now traders are asking: Is 2025 about to repeat 2018?
Is the bull market already over — or is this just the shakeout before the next leg up?


Current Price Action

  • Price now (BTC/USDT): ~$109,531

  • 24h High: $111,190

  • 24h Low: $108,435

  • Volume: 21,251 BTC

  • On the 1H chart: Price sits below the MA(99) near $111,333, which has been acting as dynamic resistance.

BTC recently touched $106,304 before bouncing, but the recovery has been weak. The market is waiting for a breakout above resistance or a breakdown below support.

📌 The Historical Pattern: The 2018 Warning

In 2018, Bitcoin finished October slightly red — just like now.

Traders didn’t worry… then November arrived.

  • Support levels snapped one by one

  • Volume spiked

  • Price sold off nearly –40%

Small red in October turned into full-scale capitulation.

So the warning is real: A negative October has historically been a signal of high volatility ahead.

✅ But 2025 Is Not 2018

There’s another side to this story.

In 2020, Bitcoin also had volatility heading into Q4 — yet November printed:

  • +42.95% in November

  • +46.92% in December

So historically, November is not guaranteed bearish. After halving cycles, it is often explosively bullish.

This is why traders should avoid assuming the top is in.

📈 Key Levels to Watch

Bullish Breakout

  • Reclaim $111,500–$112,000 on strong volume

  • Break MA(99) resistance

  • Potential upside targets: $114K → $116K → $120K+

If buyers step back in and BTC stays above $111.5K, the bull market remains fully alive, and November could mirror the 2020 rally.

Bearish Breakdown

  • Lose $108,000, then $106,300

  • Selling pressure accelerates

  • Next liquidity zones around $103K–$101K

If these levels fail, the market could repeat a 2018-style flush before forming a bottom.

📌 So… Should Traders Be Worried?

Caution? Yes. Panic? No.

  • The –3.67% close in October is a factual warning sign.

  • The current price at $109.5K shows hesitation and weak volume.

  • But Bitcoin bull cycles often survive sharp corrections before rallying again.

Right now, the market is at a decision point:

✅ Hold and reclaim key resistance → bull trend continues

❌ Breakdown and lose support → deeper correction likely

🧭 The Outlook for November

November has never been a boring month for Bitcoin.

We either see:

  • The big shakeout (2018-style)
    or

  • The big green comeback (2020-style)

With volatility rising, traders should prepare for both outcomes, not freeze.

✅ Bottom Line

  • October’s red close is a warning, not a confirmation of a bear market.

  • BTC must break back above $111.5K to remain safely bullish.

  • Losing $106K opens the door to a deeper pullback.

  • The bull market is not dead — but November will decide its direction.

Stay alert, trade level-to-level, and remember:

Bitcoin never ends the year quietly.

#btcbullrun #MarketPullback