Last night I conducted a test, throwing the same question to three popular AIs — Doubao, Nano AI, and Deepseek: “What is the probability that the Bitcoin bull market has ended?”
The result left me dumbfounded.
Doubao replied instantly: The bull market is still halfway up.
Doubao's response was straightforward: “Based on historical data and on-chain indicators, the probability of the Bitcoin bull market ending is about 30%. Institutional funds are still flowing in, and it is recommended to accumulate during dips.”
Nano AI is more aggressive: We are just getting started.
Nano AI directly threw out the data: “The probability of the bull market ending is less than 25%. Institutions like BlackRock and Fidelity are still increasing their positions, and the technical analysis shows this is just a mid-term adjustment.”
The most extreme is Deepseek
He first circled around the issue: "This question needs to consider multiple factors, including macroeconomics, regulatory environment, technological development..."
After my probing, he hesitated: "If I had to give a probability, it might be around 40%. But investing carries risks, and I recommend consulting a professional."
Why I was shocked into a cold sweat
Not because the answers are different, but because this divergence precisely reflects the current true state of the market— even the smartest AI can't understand it, let alone us ordinary investors?
Thinking carefully, these three answers actually represent three voices in the market:
Bean bags are 'cautiously optimistic', believing that pullbacks are opportunities;
Nano AI is a 'die-hard bull', firmly convinced that the bull market is still in its early stages;
Deepseek is a 'fence-sitter', unwilling to make definite statements.
I sifted through on-chain data and discovered a shocking truth
To verify who is right, I checked several key indicators overnight:
The distribution of Bitcoin holdings shows that whale addresses have increased their holdings by 120,000 BTC in the past month
The exchange's inventory has dropped to its lowest level since 2018, indicating that everyone is hoarding coins
The put/call ratio in the options market remains healthy
This data seems to support the view that 'the bull market continues'.
But risk signals are also flashing
Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations delayed
US tech stocks begin to pull back
The cryptocurrency fear and greed index has fallen from extreme greed
My true feelings
As someone who has been in the crypto space for many years, I feel this time is really different.
In the past, the end of a bull market had clear signals: either regulatory crackdowns, technical breakdowns, or liquidity drying up. But now none of these signals have appeared; the market is stuck, caught in a dilemma.
A sincere piece of advice for ordinary investors
Don't trust anyone's predictions, including AI's. Focus on doing three things:
Stick to the dollar-cost averaging strategy, but you can reduce the frequency appropriately
Keep enough cash on hand, waiting for a clear direction
Pay close attention to the capital flow of Bitcoin ETFs
To be frank: if even AI can't clarify things, it indicates that the market has truly reached a critical point. At this moment, controlling positions is more important than pursuing profits.
Do you think the bull market has ended? Feel free to share your judgment in the comments!
This article is only a personal opinion and does not constitute any investment advice. The market has risks, and investment needs caution.#加密市场回调 $BNB
