Powell's "face change" shocks the market! Is a rate cut in December hanging in the balance? These three signals teach you to escape the peak in advance.

"A change in dialogue changes the script, and the entire cast collectively fails!" Last night, after Powell finished reading the rate cut script, he turned around and added: "December rate cut? Don't rush to pop the champagne!" The market instantly exploded—rate cut probabilities plummeted by 22% in half an hour, and Bitcoin fell below $110,000. How many hidden implications are there in Old Powell's "risk management-style rate cut" script?

The fatal statement in Powell's opening remarks: "There are serious disagreements within the committee regarding action in December; a rate cut is by no means certain" directly turned the table. CME interest rate futures immediately changed their tune: the probability of a December rate cut fell from 92% to 70%, U.S. Treasury yields rebounded, and the DXY dollar index rose. What does this indicate? Liquidity expectations are being "pulled away," and the short-term euphoria in risk assets may be cooling!

Powell claims to be “data-dependent,” but is actually hinting madly: inflation stickiness > recession risk. The core PCE in September remains as high as 2.6%, far from the 2% target! This wave of “risk management-style rate cuts” is essentially a preventive operation; if employment data doesn’t collapse, a hawkish pause in December is entirely possible. Institutions have quietly adjusted their positions—GrayScale GBTC's continuous net outflow is a signal!

Retail investors think that the rate cut cycle has begun and can charge in mindlessly? Beware of becoming the 'last rate cut' bag holder! The script of the U.S. stock market dropping 20% after the Fed rate cut in 2019 is still fresh in our memories. But there’s gold hidden in crises! If December truly pauses rate cuts, allocating anti-inflation assets (like BTC, ETH) and Real Yield protocols (like LDO, SSV) is the right path—tightening liquidity may instead force funds to concentrate on quality assets.

What you need to do now is not panic, but to divide your positions into a 'defensive shield'! Bull markets often plunge, bear markets often spike! Old Powell's words are deceiving—learning to pick up chips in the expectation gap is the true hunt!

Follow Xuanji to navigate around traps and grasp the rhythm. Remember: you cannot earn money beyond your cognition, but by following Xuanji, you can quickly fill in your cognitive gaps. #加密市场回调