Tonight's global market is destined to be a battlefield without gunpowder. A pre-market news that "Powell may pause interest rate cuts due to inflation data and restart rate hikes" exploded like thunder in the trading circle, instantly disrupting the layout rhythm of all funds; while Trump followed closely with a post stating "absolutely will not allow rate hikes," further plunging pre-market trading into a chaotic vortex. At this moment, the world's attention is firmly locked on 2:30 AM — the final answer to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision will not only reveal the ultimate direction of the market but will also tear open the secret boundaries between power and market behind the interest rate hike and cut game.
Everyone knows that 'interest rate cuts' are very likely to come, but no one dares to decide 'how it will come'. This is precisely the most gripping suspense of this resolution: data from the CME shows that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut tonight has soared to 98%. The disappointing inflation and employment data from the U.S. in September have paved the 'fast track' for rate cuts. But the key question remains unresolved: will it be a 25 basis point cut as expected, or an unexpected 50 basis point cut? How many more rate cut windows will there be in the remaining time this year? Every answer directly determines the direction of capital's life and death tonight.
For traders, tonight's operation is not a 'multiple-choice question', but a 'life-or-death question'. Looking solely at the technicals, the daily close is firmly below the zero line, making shorting a logical and safe play. However, the uncertainty of monetary policy acts like an invisible hand, completely disrupting all technical logic. The real 'life-or-death switch' is hidden in Powell's press conference: if he releases a 'dovish' signal, clearly supporting continued interest rate cuts, the market could suddenly surge; if the stance turns 'hawkish', suggesting a slowdown in the pace of rate cuts, market fluctuations may escalate into 'roller-coaster' volatility.
My strategy is clear: do not bet on the direction, only follow the market. Currently, I am inclined to go long. However, the market is never a 'one-time' casino; mistakes are part of trading. Even if I can profit from a long position and exit, I will still act decisively when it's time to re-enter. This is my unchanging principle. After all, in a 'decisive moment' like tonight, it's more important to catch every market fluctuation than to guess the market direction, and to accurately follow the rhythm of capital competition.#美联储降息预期