Last night it suddenly dropped, 115000 couldn't hold and is still mainly oscillating. Currently continuing to look for support levels, tonight accompanied by the announcement of interest rate cuts, the market may fluctuate significantly, so contract players need to pay attention to the risks;
At the altcoin level, x402 is currently collectively retracing, leading coins can be focused on, currently recognized by the market is virtual clanker, these two have already risen quite a bit, followed by various AI applications, but this kind of AI has a limited ceiling, and there may be more gameplay to come in the future;
BTC
Last night there was a surge that served as an ultimate bait (old trick) forming three peaks before starting to crash, testing breakout failure, after consolidating the bears broke out and plunged rapidly, currently oscillating around 112700.
(1) Currently, the upper pressure near 116000 has already attempted to break through 116,000 twice and failed both times, especially the second attempt was weaker than the first. Therefore, if the third attempt also fails to break through, there is still a possibility of a pullback to around 113,000.
(2) Support near 112000 is considered a watershed. If it holds on the pullback, there could be another rebound. If it can't hold, I don't know where it will go for now.
(2) The 1-hour MACD has a golden cross, indicating a short-term stabilization. The area around 112700 is a strong support zone, with decent accumulated funds, showing hope for a rebound. Entry position is near 1127, and stop-loss position is near 1114.
ETH
A typical 'Evening Star' pattern has appeared on the daily chart, accompanied by increased volume, indicating that funds are being distributed. On the 4-hour level, the 4060–4040 area has turned from support to resistance, and 4100 is also a key pressure point. Spot purchases made at lower levels can take partial profits in this area.
ETH has a CME gap, a reasonable buying point after a pullback near 3952 USD. If it falls to the range of 3915–3866, the technical overlap is more sufficient, providing a better opportunity for additional purchases. The upper target range remains at 4400–4700 USD, and the market has not yet reached this level.
Interest rate cut to pause?
Currently, it seems that the interest rate cut of 25BP early in the morning is basically a foregone conclusion. The only variable is whether Powell will announce a stop to balance sheet reduction during his speech. If QT stops, the market will receive a stronger boost, and the momentum for Bitcoin and US stocks to rise will also be stronger.
RAY
The RAY weekly overbought signal has appeared again. The last two times when RAY triggered the overbought signal on the weekly chart, I made spot purchases and gained decent profits. Although the positions were slightly different, the rhythm and intensity structure are similar. Preparing to make the first position.
BOS
The Bitcoin smart contract project aims to activate the BTC held by institutions, unlocking DEFI profits, with a total of 21 billion, initial circulation of 2.2%, pool price 0.0095.
Positive news: 1. Initial liquidity is low 2. Investment institutions are doing well.
Negative news: 1. Market cap is not low, quite high 2. Not too confident that BTCFi can get such a high financing now 3. Community mod says there will be news of airdrops coming out in the next few days.
Bitcoin L2 has basically no way out. Referencing Merlin, b2 baby, etc., it is highly likely to make a small profit of about 30 bucks. On a side note, I've also invested 10M. I don't know if this time the VC can exit, no contracts, no spot.
PUMP
What is currently rising strongly in the cryptocurrency circle——all are valuable coins with ETFs and strategic reserves, DEFI projects that continue to profit, high inflation, but with buyback capability.
Since the buyback was initiated, daily income has been used entirely for buybacks, which means real money flowing in. Currently, there are many coins showing signs of explosive growth before a series of small bullish candles.
Believe
Believe combines the flywheel buyback, ICO, and ICM narratives.
Flywheel buyback: The ultimate goal is to buy back all supplies; ICO: The ultimate goal is for the ICO project to be listed on NASDAQ; ICM: The ultimate goal is for NASDAQ-listed companies to issue coins on Believe.
So believe is the culmination of the above narratives, each narrative has 1b potential, adding up to 100b. Believe will announce new details on the 'flywheel principle' once the upgrade is complete today.
