“The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is like a ‘blind box’ in the cryptocurrency world, with the hawks shouting ‘drop quickly to save’, the doves saying ‘slowly milk it out’, and the hardliners insisting ‘don't loosen yet’. Players in the crypto space are left dizzy by these ‘immortals’, and one misstep can lead to the market being ‘pulled up by the roots’!”
The Federal Reserve's “three factions fighting”, the crypto world has become the “sandwich”
The Federal Reserve is in chaos, with big shots divided into three factions: aggressive rate cut faction, conservative slow cut faction, and hardline no cut faction, each holding their ground, significantly impacting the crypto world.
1. Aggressive rate cut faction: “If we don’t cut 50 basis points, we might as well wait for death!”
Federal Reserve Governor Milan slams the table: “In October, we must cut 50 basis points, and cut two more times this year, or the economy will collapse!” The job market is precarious, we must quickly “inject liquidity to save the market”.
2. Conservative slow cut faction: “25 basis points, slowly grind!”
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell plays Tai Chi: “Employment and inflation are in a ‘tug-of-war’, if we cut too quickly, inflation will rebound, and if we cut too slowly, employment will collapse, each cut is 25 basis points ‘squeezing toothpaste’.” This faction is like a “weight loss group”, with Governors Waller and Bowman agreeing that “we eat based on the data”. The conservative faction has the majority, and Powell tends to lean towards them, having the highest probability, but the market may spike and then pull back.
3. Hardline no cut faction: “Inflation isn’t dead yet, don’t loosen!”
Vice Chairman Jefferson and Governor Barr pour cold water: “Inflation is still far from the 2% target, cutting rates is equivalent to ‘injecting steroids’ into prices.” Some shout, “Stop after cutting 25 basis points in September.”
Personal opinion: The Federal Reserve's “verbal attacks” are fierce, crypto players need to “listen and discern the position”
The Federal Reserve's “infighting” harms the crypto world. Last year’s aggressive rate hikes led to Bitcoin’s price halving, how many people were liquidated? Now that the rate cut expectations are just emerging, there’s internal strife, and funds are left confused. The April non-farm data was a shock, and the crypto world went crazy with “violent rate cuts”, resulting in big shots turning against each other, Bitcoin plummeting 5%. The divergence among big shots is significant, the market volatility is crazy, and newcomers are easily buried.
Powell “makes the call”, can he let you ambush 500 points in advance?
Tonight’s Federal Reserve meeting, will the big shots “turn sides”? Can the aggressive faction convince the conservative faction, or will the hardliners choke off the rate cuts? The key depends on which side Powell stands on. Tonight’s strategy meeting in the village will set up in advance, specific entry points will be announced in the village! #美联储降息预期