A friend asked if Trump might pardon SBF?
Personally, I feel there is a 20% chance of pardoning Cz before it happens, which increases to 40%–60% after pardoning Cz. Pardoning Cz is likely a bait for Trump to test public opinion pressure for several reasons:
1. When Trump initially lost the election and was raided, SBF provided a significant amount of funding.
2. After Trump was elected, his friend and cryptocurrency investor Cathie Wood visited SBF in prison, an action interpreted by the outside world as a signal of reciprocation.
3. In the past two years, the assets surrounding SBF's bankruptcy have been continuously inflated, to the point where FTX has completely repaid its debts from that year. This means that investors have no direct losses and it can be packaged as “the case has closed,” reducing the political cost of the pardon. (The large influx of funds into assets related to FTX's bankruptcy is itself not an ordinary matter.)
4. SBF is a Jew, and it is well-known that Jewish consortiums tend to protect their own.
5. SBF's Twitter account has also been recently reactivated.
Considering the above points, the probability of SBF being pardoned is increasing. It is very likely that pardoning Cz is Trump's way of hedging against public opinion pressure, and Trump's personality often involves playing a small game before a big one.
Overall, it seems possible; after all, whatever Trump does doesn't come as a surprise.