$BTC | Comprehensive Cycle Analysis & Market Outlook
After the sharp correction on October 11, Bitcoin’s market sentiment has cooled dramatically. The price has been consolidating around the previous bottom, with major altcoins also showing weak performance and limited participation opportunities. This raises a pressing question for every crypto investor: Has the Bitcoin bull market ended?
Below is an in-depth cycle analysis and professional interpretation to help you make your own judgment.
📊 1. Market Context
Bitcoin’s last bull cycle ended on November 10, 2021, when BTC hit its peak at $69,000 before falling nearly 8.6% the next day — marking the start of a prolonged bear market.
Interestingly, both that cycle and the current one share strong similarities: both are at the end of the second year post-halving, and both experienced a sharp correction in October.
In this cycle:
Peak: $109,588 (January 20, 2025)
Low: $74,620 (April 9, 2025)
Pullback Depth: ~32%
Pattern: Very similar to the 2021 cycle, when BTC peaked at $64,854, retraced 55%, and then rebounded before topping out again.
The coincidence in time (both major declines falling on the 11th) and cycle structure suggests that Bitcoin may again be nearing a macro-cycle peak.
⏳ 2. Cycle Timing and Halving Dynamics
Bitcoin’s halving in April 2024 mirrors the 2020 halving (which was in May), with market cycles maintaining consistent rhythm:
Bull Market Duration: ~2 years after halving
Bear Market Duration: ~1 year
Next Halving: Expected April 2028
Following this pattern, the bear market bottom is expected by late 2027, with early accumulation likely to start a year before the next halving.
From this time-based perspective, Bitcoin appears to be at or near the peak stage of its 2024–2025 bull cycle.
🧩 3. Structural Analysis & Key Observations
While some believe this cycle could bring an “eternal bull market” due to ETF inflows and institutional participation, historical patterns remain resilient.
Bull Case Factors:
Bitcoin ETFs have increased mainstream accessibility.
Institutions, hedge funds, and public companies are now holding BTC.
Global financial uncertainty and USD credit risk have driven hedging demand.
Bear Case Factors:
High prices reduce willingness of “smart money” to absorb sell pressure.
Many addresses hold BTC bought at higher levels — creating constant profit-taking pressure during any rally.
Market makers and whales need lower prices to reload positions efficiently.
💰 4. Liquidity and Capital Flow Reality
At the current price of $114,000 per BTC, liquidity requirements are massive:
10,000 BTC = $11.4 billion
100,000 BTC = $114 billion
Such capital concentration is unsustainable for accumulation at this level. Thus, large holders may intentionally drive prices lower to reacquire cheaper “low-level chips” before the next uptrend.
📉 5. Forecast & Risk Outlook
Expected Bear Market Low: Below $60,000
Estimated Bottom Timeframe: October–December 2026
Condition: Applies if BTC fails to break above the historical high of $126,200
The current environment suggests Bitcoin is entering its late-stage peak zone, where volatility intensifies and capital rotation accelerates.
⚠️ 6. Key Takeaways for Investors
Be Prepared for Cyclical Pullback:
No market rises forever — accumulation opportunities come after corrections.
Preserve Capital Flexibility:
Retain some stable assets to buy strategically during downturns.
Focus on Structure, Not Emotion:
Market euphoria often signals the late phase of a cycle.
Don’t Blindly Follow “Eternal Bull” Narratives:
Institutional participation changes liquidity, not the laws of market cycles.
🧭 Conclusion
From a time and structure perspective, Bitcoin appears to be at or near a cycle peak, consistent with past halving dynamics.
While the presence of ETFs and institutional inflows may alter the pace, a correction phase remains inevitable.
Prudent investors should adopt defensive positioning, maintain liquidity, and prepare to capitalize when the next accumulation window opens.
📌 Disclaimer:
This content represents a professional market perspective and does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct independent research and manage your own risk.