BTC and ETH could respond positively if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates.
JP Morgan and State Street expect the Fed to cut rates, possibly again in December.
Unless major geopolitical events occur, BTC and ETH may still reach new all-time highs (ATHs) before the end of the year.
Markets Await the Fed’s Decision
Global investors are closely watching Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s announcement on October 29. This announcement will reveal the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) decision on the Federal Funds Rate (FFR).
Over the years, October has earned the nickname “Uptober” for the crypto community, as it usually sees bullish sentiment and strong returns. However, in 2025, Uptober hasn’t met expectations. While some traders made impressive profits, many others faced significant losses due to mid-October volatility.
Despite this uneven performance, both Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) remain well-positioned for a potential year-end rally. Expectations of a Fed rate cut, confidence from institutional investors, and long-term technical strength all support this outlook.
BTC and ETH Maintain Long-Term Strength
Bitcoin briefly dropped below $104,000 earlier in October, alarming the market. Yet the overall trend remains positive:
BTC is up 69% year-over-year and is trading near $114,000.
The asset reached an ATH of around $126,000 in early October.
ETH trades around $4,100, marking a 65% yearly increase and almost reaching its own ATH near $5,000 in August.
These performance figures are significant because they build on strong gains from 2024’s Uptober, showing sustained market momentum despite periodic corrections.
Institutional interest remains high, with Bitcoin ETFs holding steady above pre-October levels even after deleveraging events. Meanwhile, U.S. regulatory attitudes toward crypto have become more positive under President Trump’s second term, with several favorable policies and rulings boosting market confidence.
Q4 Resilience and Market Structure
Historically, Q4 has been a strong quarter for both BTC and ETH. The past three years saw consistent gains, and 2025 is continuing this trend:
BTC: +0.63% so far in Q4
ETH: +0.27% so far in Q4
While October was the weakest Uptober in recent memory, both assets still ended the month in the green, showing resilience amid global uncertainty.
Analysts Outline BTC’s Rally Path
Market analyst Benjamin Cowen pointed out that BTC remains above its 50-week moving average (MA), a key indicator that suggests the broader uptrend is still intact. He also noted BTC’s recovery above its 20-week MA, which usually signals renewed bullish momentum.
Cowen believes that if Bitcoin Dominance breaks above 60%, it could spark a strong upward move. He predicts BTC has the potential to surpass its October ATH before the end of the year, as long as macroeconomic conditions remain stable.
Why Could Follow BTC’s Lead
Analyst Ted Pillows mentioned that the S&P 500 (SPX) recently reached an all-time high, which often indicates incoming cash flow for risk-on assets like BTC and ETH.
Pillows also highlighted significant whale positions, with over $234 million in BTC longs and $198 million in longs. This suggests institutional traders are preparing for further gains.
According to Polymarket data, there’s a 51% chance that ETH could hit $5,000 in 2025.
Additionally, analyst Crypto Rover compared Ethereum’s current pattern to its 2020 structure, which preceded a major bull run. If this comparison holds, ETH could surge beyond $10,000.
However, most experts agree that Bitcoin will lead the next phase of the rally, with Ethereum and other altcoins likely following once BTC establishes a new trend.
Macro Outlook: The Fed’s Role in the Next Crypto Move
Both JP Morgan Global Research and State Street Investment Managers expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this week, and possibly again in December.
Rate cuts typically boost liquidity across markets and increase appetite for risk assets, including crypto. If the Fed confirms even a small cut, it could serve as a strong catalyst for renewed buying pressure in BTC and ETH.
However, ongoing uncertainties, such as the U.S. government shutdown and limited access to labor market data, could lead the Fed to make a cautious decision, leaving room for short-term volatility.
Conclusion: The Room Remains Open
Despite October’s turbulence, Bitcoin and Ethereum remain technically and fundamentally strong as we head into the final months of 2025.
Both assets continue to trade above key support levels, institutional inflows are strong, and macro conditions may soon improve.
If historical trends repeat and the Fed implements the expected rate cuts, BTC could challenge or exceed $130,000, while ETH may reach or exceed $5,000 by year-end.
Unless disrupted by major geopolitical events, the crypto market could still close 2025 with record-breaking highs.
Disclaimer:
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.
