Recently, the market has finally shown some 'decent' movement.
The four major cryptocurrencies (BTC, ETH, SOL, BNB) have all broken through the triangular consolidation range that I have been monitoring. Whether this is a true breakout or just an expansion of the fluctuation range still needs further observation. However, as long as it can push up again and hit a decent rebound high, this round of market movement can be considered stable.
10.27 Market Analysis:
This rebound is progressing as expected, with Bitcoin aiming for the 116 resistance level, and Ethereum hitting the 4200-4300 range simultaneously. The weekly and monthly patterns look good, and trading volume is warming up, with a solid bullish trend remaining. Especially after the sell-off on the 21st, the quick stabilization and strengthening indicate that capital hasn't withdrawn.
🎯 BTC short-term rhythm
Currently hitting the 116 level, if the breakout fails, pay attention to the 112-113 support zone; if it can stabilize above 114, it may try near 1175 again. The overall trend remains strong, don't be scared out by small-level fluctuations.
🎯 ETH rhythm synchronization
The second contract has reached the key resistance of 4200-4300, focus on whether it can break through near 4260 in the short term; if it faces pressure, support will be looked at around 4100-4160, with strong support in the 4000-4030 range. The overall trend is also bullish, just patiently wait for a volume breakout.
The Federal Reserve is about to start a new round of liquidity, with U.S. stocks, A-shares, and gold all reaching historical highs, yet the crypto circle is still 'playing dead'.
This week, there are actually quite a few positive factors—U.S.-China relations easing, CPI below expectations, SOL Hong Kong ETF approved, CZ being pardoned and donating BNB to support Trump in promoting crypto popularity—the result is that the coin price barely reacted.
To be honest, this year's market is indeed not cost-effective in terms of funds, time, and opportunity cost. The 'slow half-step' in the crypto circle will likely take time to recover its vitality.
Since the crash, the four major coins have been converging around a triangular range.
Based on the rhythm, this week is likely to choose a direction, which is also the most critical stage for bottoming out.
The good news is—no new explosions have occurred, indicating that the support below is effective. The current view is very simple:
Increase positions in SOL and BNB in batches; these two still have the highest risk-reward ratios.
Don't rush altcoins for now, wait for the big direction to confirm before acting.
🕓 Thursday: The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting decides the medium-term trend
This meeting is crucial, and a rate cut is almost a certainty; the key is whether Powell will directly announce 'stopping the balance sheet reduction or even restarting expansion'.
Once this signal is released, the funding will undergo a major shift, which is super bullish for the market.
Next, focus on two risk points:
1️⃣ Will new institutions or projects explode again;
2️⃣ Is the issue of the U.S. government shutdown resolved?
Once these risks are resolved, the market will naturally enter a recovery period.
At the same time, we need to see if the four major coins can break through the previous high; once a strong structure is established, the upper limit of this rebound will be much higher than what we see now.
⏳ End of the bull market stage: Greed and rationality coexist
Many people say the bull market has peaked, citing the October 11 crash and the end of the cycle time.
I agree—this is indeed the end stage of the bull market, but the tail is often the craziest part.
The pattern for this round of altcoins is 'drop first, then rise', so don't fantasize too much about the height. The overall strategy should shift from aggressive to conservative:
Reduce positions at highs, take profits in batches, and prepare to layout low-leverage short positions for next year's bear market.
The market is always counterintuitive—everyone was bullish in October, resulting in a crash; now that everyone is bearish, will there be a counter-face slap again?
Currently, retail investors are generally out of the market, and those remaining are big funds, which makes it easier for miracles to happen in such times.
I personally lean towards the mainstream coins having one more decent surge, while altcoins depend on how the whales arrange it.
Conclusion:
The market hasn't died, it's just accumulating energy.
Don't be fooled by the short-term calm—
The four major coins are bottoming out, Base is holding back big moves, and the Federal Reserve is paving the way.
The next two months may be the last dance of the bull market.
Stay steady where you should, and rise where you can.
Perhaps this time, it really is the 'night before dawn'.
Opportunities disappear in the blink of an eye, everyone hurry up!
Don't let hesitation miss the best opportunity to get rich, and don't let air coins tear you apart. Follow Sister Meow and let's rock this bull market together!
