1. The starting point of the myth
If you've been in the crypto space long enough, you must have heard this saying:
"The fate of Bitcoin is determined by the halving rhythm."
2012, 2016, 2020 - three halvings, three bull markets.
Miner rewards are halved, supply decreases, and funds and emotions drive up prices.
People begin to firmly believe that there is a mysterious 'four-year fate cycle' for Bitcoin.
This logic is simple, elegant, and even carries a sense of destiny.
In a world without central banks, 'halving' is Bitcoin's own 'monetary policy meeting'.
However, in 2025, it may be the final chapter of this belief.
Two, the disintegration of the old cycle
The reason the 'four-year cycle theory' was once effective is because Bitcoin was still small.
At that time, it was an isolated ecology—
Prices are jointly dominated by miner output and retail investor sentiment,
The impact of the macro environment can almost be ignored.
But now, times have changed.
Bitcoin is no longer an island, but is being pulled into the core of the global financial and technological system.
Four structural changes are gradually rendering the old cycle ineffective.
1️⃣ Institutionalization:
ETF approval, mature custody system, liquidity smoothing.
The marginal impact of reduced miner output is diluted by the flood of capital.
What dominates the market is no longer miners and believers, but risk models and quantitative funds.
2️⃣ Macroeconomic:
Bitcoin has been deeply embedded in the global liquidity cycle.
Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, dollar strength and weakness, changes in risk appetite—
The influence of these macro factors far exceeds a 'halving'.
3️⃣ Narrative Fragmentation:
Past bull markets had clear main lines—
2017 was ICO, 2021 is DeFi + NFT.
But now, funds and attention are scattered across multiple fields such as BTC L2, RWA, AI, TON, Solana, Modular.
There is no unified climax, only continuous rotation and experimentation.
4️⃣ Algorithmization:
Quantitative trading and AI strategies have made market reactions more immediate and arbitrage more efficient.
The past 'human lag in cycles' is being replaced by machine rationality.
Three, the rise of AI: America’s new national strategy
What truly renders the 'four-year cycle theory' ineffective is the migration of global narratives.
Over the past decade, blockchain has been the center of innovation.
Today, AI has taken its place, becoming the core of new technological hegemony competition.
The U.S. is going all in on AI:
From OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI to Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon,
From policy support to capital investment, AI has been officially incorporated into the national strategy.
When a superpower concentrates resources and attention on the same track,
The 'narrative main line' of global capital will shift accordingly.
AI is not only an industry trend but also a new myth of global growth.
Capital is reconstructing market structure around 'computing power - data - models - energy'.
And Bitcoin is being redefined:
As a 'computing power asset', it may merge with the AI computing market;
As an 'energy financial layer', it may become the underlying unit of computing power settlement.
But as an 'independent cycle asset driven by halving', its era has already passed.
The narrative of Bitcoin is being absorbed into a larger technological cycle system.
Four, from 'cycle' to 'volatility band': the rhythm of a new era
The future Bitcoin will no longer follow a four-year rhythm,
But rather entering an era shaped by liquidity + technology narratives, the 'volatility band era'.
✅ When global liquidity is loose, AI narratives are high, and risk assets collectively rise, Bitcoin breaks through;
❌ When the dollar tightens and the innovation cycle cools, risk appetite declines, and Bitcoin falls back.
It is no longer the cyclical movement within a closed system,
But rather a “risk thermometer” in the macro system.
The price of Bitcoin reflects not just supply and demand,
But rather humanity's confidence and fear of future technology.
Five, conclusion: The curtain call of an era
The 'four-year cycle theory' is the childhood myth of Bitcoin.
And the 'technology narrative cycle' will become the main melody of the new era.
In the past decade, we relied on the 'halving rhythm' to understand the market;
In the next decade, we will rely on the speed of innovation and the cycle of computing power to understand the world.
When the U.S. goes all in on AI, and global capital competes for computing power, energy, and intelligence,
Bitcoin is no longer an isolated financial experiment.
But rather becoming the energy curve of technological civilization—
The earliest to sense risk and also the first to capture hope.
2025 may not be the starting point of the next bull market,
But rather:
⚙️ The final chapter of the 'four-year cycle theory',
💡 The curtain rises on the 'technology narrative era'.
