Current price zone$BTC at $112k acts as the 'neck' of the medium-term structure: here converge levels of historical volume, local maxima of the impulse wave, and liquidity clusters accumulated during the last uptrend. For the market, this is a key redistribution range, where the sustainability of demand is tested against increased elasticity of supply from short-term holders. The balance between aggressive bids and passive offers determines the likelihood of trend continuation along the trajectory of acceleration.
The breakout scenario implies a consolidation above the 'neckline' on increasing delta volume and narrowing spreads, accompanied by positive dynamics of the basis on futures and a straightening of the funding curve. In this case, the target range $132–135k becomes a function of liquidity transfer from shorts to forced buyouts, as well as the activation of pending orders from long-term participants increasing their spot exposure. An additional confirmation will be a decrease in the tracking error for spot ETFs and an increase in the share of 'heavy' addresses that are not prone to rapid turnover.
An alternative scenario of a failure to break out will manifest through unsuccessful attempts to consolidate, an increase in negative delta, and an expansion of intraday ranges amid a deterioration in the quality of the order book. A return below $112k amid a deepening discount to the fair price will activate a phase of prolonged consolidation: the market transitions to a sideways structure with decreasing volatility, redistributing positions between spot and derivative segments. In this configuration, a 'flat' correction is likely to form with a test of the zones $103–106k, where historically supporting volume has concentrated.
For portfolio managers, this is a fork in risk modes. In the breakout scenario, rational tactics involve increasing beta through spot/1x instruments with protection in the form of optional collars, as well as controlled basis trades in moderate contango. In the case of prolonged consolidation, it is advisable to shift the focus to neutral strategies: selling volatility in limited structures, calendar spreads at expirations with increased implied volatility, selective rotation into assets with better relative strength while maintaining strict limits on leverage.
Strategically, the 'neckline' $112k serves as a filter for the medium-term trend: an upward breakout opens the way for resetting fair value targets and increases the likelihood of structural capital outflows from cash and alternative risk assets, whereas a failure consolidates the balance of forces and prolongs the accumulation phase. In both cases, the discipline of liquidity management, rigorous work with stop losses, and scenario planning of the risk profile remain decisive conditions for maintaining portfolio efficiency in a changing volatility regime.

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