Friends, last night the ETH hourly chart suddenly spiked, with prices breaking through 4000. It seems that the CPI data has sparked a market rally, but as a senior analyst with years of experience in the crypto space, I must sound the alarm—this is not the starting point of a bull market, but a carefully orchestrated 'bull trap'! If you are a small investor or new to this, please set aside your FOMO emotions and listen to my detailed explanation.
The US CPI data has just been released, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, slightly exceeding expectations. The market is cheering for the imminent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, and ETH has surged in response. However, the apparent positive news is actually negative! Inflationary pressures are not alleviated, and the decline in core CPI suggests economic concerns. Such 'sugar-coated bullets' are often a prelude to large capital cutting leeks. Although ETH's hourly chart has risen above 3925 USDT, the trading volume has significantly shrunk, and the MACD indicator is weak above the zero axis—this is by no means a healthy increase, but rather a signal to lure in buyers! As an analyst, I sense that there will be severe fluctuations in the next 24 hours. Retail investors should be cautious of blindly chasing highs, or they may become cannon fodder.
News aspect
Last night, the CPI news went viral, saying 'the prospect of interest rate cuts is clear' is purely misleading! Upon closer inspection: the year-on-year increase of 3.0% is higher than expected, the government shutdown has delayed data release, which instead exposes the uncertainty of the U.S. economy. Historical experience shows that such events often lead to liquidity tightening, with the crypto circle being the first to bear the brunt. This time, ETH's rise is actually institutions offloading based on news — they laid out their positions in advance and are now raising prices to attract newbies. Remember, real good news won't cause a surge right after data is released, but will ferment slowly. Why is the main force densely placing orders at the 3980 USDT pressure level? But if you want to avoid pitfalls, first pay attention to me; the internal sharing in the Key Village has already warned of this risk.
Technical aspect: a moment of panic
Looking at this chart again, although the ETH hourly candlestick is green, the Bollinger Band (BOLL) middle track at 3929 USDT is already showing pressure, and the upper track at 3975 USDT forms strong resistance. More frightening is that the RSI indicator has entered the overbought zone, and the shrinking volume confirms a lack of buying strength — this is a typical 'top divergence' signal! If the support level of 3865 USDT is broken, it could trigger a waterfall decline. As an experienced trader, I advise retail investors not to be misled by the current price increase; hourly rebounds are often a 'dead cat bounce.'
Personal opinion: The ETH trend today will rise first and then fall, possibly retracing below 3800 USDT in the evening. Want to know the specific entry and exit points? Follow me; the Key Top Village will reveal it.
Retail Survival Guide: How to Avoid Being Cut?
Now it is crucial to avoid chasing after rises! ETH plays a psychological game; once the favorable CPI data is fully priced in, it turns into a negative.
My cryptocurrency trading methodology is: strictly control positions, stop loss at 3865 USDT, and take profit in batches at 3980 USDT on rebounds. A more advanced approach is to hedge with options, but this requires real-time monitoring — that's right, this is the suspense: the subsequent trends have uncertainties. I have laid out a secret strategy in the Key Village; want to follow it? Join the Key Village. Remember, the crypto circle is not a casino; only rationality can help you survive.
Follow the Key, uncover the shocking riddle of the future market
Friends, the ETH market is always full of suspense, but the truth is only in the hands of a few. Is the CPI data really favorable? Why do I say that the main force is creating panic? More analysis I will exclusively reveal in the Key Top Village — click to follow, reply with 'ETH Code' to get precise predictions for the future market.
Recently, there have been more shorts, has the bottom been built? Where is the bottom? Where is the top? Feel free to leave a message in the comments, or you can find the Key to communicate, making your trading clearer and your returns more substantial.
