Bitcoin's key turning point is approaching: The best trading opportunity following a false breakout is about to arrive.
The current Bitcoin price is still in the symmetrical triangle consolidation phase, and the market direction is unclear, typical of a volatile range market. The price is operating at the midpoint of the range, making trading less favorable; patiently waiting for clearer structural signals will be a better choice.
Key Support and Resistance
Support Level
The lower edge of the triangle is about $106,000: A small swing failure pattern (mini SFP) occurred previously and rebounded, providing short-term support.
The weekly low is slightly below $106,000: If a false breakdown occurs and quickly recovers, it will create a potential long opportunity.
100,000 dollar integer level: belongs to the market psychological defense line. Once tested and recovered, it may become a strong reversal point.
Resistance level
The upper edge of the triangle is close to the historical high point area: overlapping trend lines and Anchored VWAP are the main technical resistance.
Near historical high points: if this area is tested but lacks a significant breakout, false breakouts are likely, leading to a retracement.
Trading strategy and plan
Bullish plan
When the price quickly recovers after a false breakdown below the weekly low, one can enter when it stabilizes at the low point again, placing stop loss below the false breakdown low, aiming towards the upper edge of the triangle or control point area.
Bearish plan
Do not consider shorting the mid-axis area for now. Wait for the price to first fail to break new highs, and then confirm the reversal signal based on the false breakout structure. Do not short without structural support.
Overall principle: trade only when there is a triple resonance of structure, volume, and signals; otherwise, stay in cash and wait.
Market views and rhythm judgment
The current market is still in a range oscillation, with directional probability about fifty-fifty. Regardless of whether the breakout is upwards or downwards, the first wave is likely to be a false breakout, followed by a return to the range. The core strategy is to wait for a reversal opportunity of 'false breakout + recovery', rather than chasing the breakout.
Short-term slightly bearish; the ideal situation is to see the price dip to the 100,000 dollar area before forming a reversal signal. Currently, it is better to miss out than to make impulsive trades.
Conclusion
Bitcoin is accumulating strength in a key compression zone. The real trading opportunities will not appear in the middle of the range but at the reversal points after false breakouts. Stay patient and wait for the market to provide clear signals, which is the most cost-effective choice at this stage.
