Why did the US stock market rebound?
Yesterday, the three major US stock indices rose across the board, and market sentiment clearly improved. The VIX panic index fell significantly by more than 10%, indicating that investor confidence is recovering. Funds are flowing back into the stock market, suggesting that the worst phase may have passed.
Bitcoin and gold linkage
Bitcoin and gold rebounded in sync with the US stock market, reflecting market optimism regarding future liquidity. Investors are betting that US-China relations may ease, while the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates, indicating potential improvements in market liquidity.
The Trump factor remains key
The short-term market continues to fluctuate around Trump's policy statements. He recently claimed that a 155% tariff on Chinese goods would start on November 1, but then released signals of easing, suggesting that an agreement with China might be reached, even mentioning a plan to visit China in 2026.
The market generally believes that this is likely Trump's negotiation strategy—first taking a tough stance, then seeking compromise through negotiations.
Federal Reserve policy expectations
The market expects a 25 basis point rate cut in October with a probability as high as 98.9%. As long as this expectation holds and no new negative factors emerge, the market is likely to remain stable.
On-chain data insights
Bitcoin's chip distribution is stable, and most holders are in a wait-and-see state, with limited selling pressure. Key support levels are at $107,863, $102,898, and $97,010.
It is important to note that the Mentougou Exchange compensation case will complete the distribution of the remaining 34,000 BTC by October 31, which may bring short-term selling pressure.
Institutional dynamics
Binance founder Zhao Changpeng publicly stated that Bitcoin will inevitably replace gold, although the timing is uncertain, the trend is irreversible. If this prophecy comes true, Bitcoin's market value still has 14 times growth potential.
In terms of Ethereum, the listed company BMNR recently increased its position by 63,539 ETH, bringing its total holdings to 3.23 million ETH, with an average cost of about $4,042, which is basically in line with the current market price.
Investment strategy advice
In the short term, the market will still be dominated by Sino-U.S. relations and Federal Reserve policies, and Trump's remarks may exacerbate volatility.
However, from a medium to long-term perspective, the logic of a bull market remains intact: against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve's easing policies and the depreciation of the dollar, Bitcoin, as a safe-haven asset, is unlikely to miss out on the benefits. The strong performance of gold also provides evidence for this.
It is advisable to maintain a core position patiently and hold, while using a small amount of funds for flexible operations to seize opportunities brought by market fluctuations. Remember: in a bull market, patience is often more effective than frequent trading.
