Precise Market Analysis｜10.22
Last night's surge, followed by a drop this morning, has left many waking up confused: what's happening in the market? Is it about to crash? Don't panic, let's sort through the logic.
First, the rise last night was due to the news that the "EU is mediating peace talks between Ukraine and Russia," which temporarily boosted global risk assets. However, the excitement didn't last long as Trump came out to pour cold water on the market—imposing a 155% tariff on Chinese goods and stating that "negotiating with Putin is meaningless." In a word, the market reacted by selling off sharply.
So, what will happen next? In the short term, the market is indeed affected by this "landmine" from Trump, but from on-chain holdings, there aren't many profit-taking positions for BTC, and the cost zone remains solid, making the probability of a rise still greater than a fall.
This week, two key things to focus on:
① Whether the CPI data will be released as scheduled on Friday (after all, the U.S. government is shut down, and no one is even working at the Labor Department);
② When the government will reopen.
Without reliable economic data, it means the market is groping in the dark, afraid to increase positions.
When will the market improve?
After experiencing a rare crash in the crypto circle over the past decade, confidence and capital will need time to recover. Realistically speaking, we may not see a warming trend until mid-November.
Will BTC crash? The probability is very low. The bottom positions are solid, and large funds are still accumulating at lower levels. For those looking to buy the dip, consider dollar-cost averaging in batches, but be mentally prepared: no one can perfectly time the bottom.
As for a bull market, don't expect it to bloom everywhere. BTC may experience a phase of growth, but altcoins are unlikely to have a collective bull market.
Currently, the biggest risk remains Trump. He stirs up international relations, intensifies trade friction, and the U.S. is caught up in protests and political divisions. Even more absurdly, he and his family are personally issuing tokens; this farce may bring short-term hype but could long-term become the fuse for future turmoil in the crypto space.
Don't panic about short-term fluctuations; structural opportunities still exist; but don't blindly go all in, as the market is still in a recovery phase. Being steadier will help you survive longer.
