The worst October since 2015. Historically, October has always been a strong month for Bitcoin.

But 2025 broke this pattern: BTC fell about 5% this month, marking the worst October performance since 2015.

With funds flowing out and traders taking profits after the third-quarter rally, risk-off sentiment dominates the market.

Short-term holders are capitulating on a large scale.

CryptoRank data shows that short-term holders (those holding BTC for less than 155 days) are selling at a daily loss of about $750 million.

This is the highest level of capitulation since the April adjustment.

This signals the arrival of the 'washout phase'—a typical redistribution period where weak hands exit and strong hands accumulate.

Institutional behavior shows divergence.

At the moment retail investors are selling, institutional indicators present a different picture:

🔸The derivatives market shows that bullish positions remain moderately stable

🔸On-chain data indicates that large holders continue to accumulate in the range of $100,000 to $110,000

In other words, institutional support remains, but macroeconomic pressures keep the market cautious.

Macroeconomic pressures and speculative bubbles

Analysts warn that artificial intelligence and cryptocurrencies may be entering speculative territory (Source: ABC News).

Capital is flowing into speculation-driven areas, where practical applications are limited.

This is reminiscent of 2021—excess liquidity and strong narratives foster rapid growth, which triggers corrections when fundamentals lag.

Technical pattern

According to NordFX forecasts, Bitcoin is currently within the support range of $104,000 to $110,000 and the resistance range of $112,000 to $116,000.

If it breaks the support level, it may trigger a deeper correction to $98,000.

If it maintains above the support level, it will strengthen the position of this area as a foundation for long-term accumulation.

Historical data shows that volatility intensifies before each halving cycle, with the next halving expected to occur in 2026.

The truth is lurking beneath the surface

This is not just a price drop, but a reset of market structure:

🔸Leveraged funds are being liquidated

🔸Retail speculation enthusiasm is cooling

🔸Institutional holdings are quietly increasing

These conditions often lay the foundation for the next round of sustainable increases.

Key points

🔸Bitcoin has recorded its worst October performance since 2015

🔸The average daily loss for short-term holders reaches $750 million

🔸Speculative pressure in the artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency sectors is evident

🔸Key support level: $104,000-$110,000 | Resistance level: $112,000-$116,000

🔸Signs of asset redistribution and structural reset are emerging

This is not the end of the cycle, but a baptism of excessive optimism.

A true bull market is born when the noise subsides and faith is held firm.

October 2025 may not be remembered as a moment of collapse, but as a silent rebuilding period before the next wave arrives.