"Analysis of the actual impact of Trump's tariff increase on China on cryptocurrencies"
Higher tariffs generate global economic uncertainty and geopolitical risk. This usually increases demand for safe-haven assets and decentralized speculative assets (Bitcoin and some altcoins), due to the perception of protection against traditional financial systems or capital controls.
In the short term: increased volatility. News of tariff escalation usually triggers spikes in buying-selling in crypto due to portfolio rebalancing and hedging flows.
In the medium term: ambivalent effect. If tariffs cause global slowdown, liquidity and risk appetite may fall, putting downward pressure on risk assets (cryptos). But if it leads to dollar devaluation or higher expected inflation, cryptos may rise as protection against inflation.
Previous studies (trade wars, political shocks) show that Bitcoin responds as a risk asset on many occasions (it falls when global markets fall), although in episodes of high distrust in institutions it can behave as a safe haven. It is not consistently predictable.
Specific channels relevant to crypto
Liquidity and rates: monetary policies and global liquidity condition flows into crypto. Tariffs that pressure the economy may lead to stimuli (monetary expansion) that benefit crypto.
Trade and mining: tariffs can affect supply chains (mining hardware, semiconductors). If equipment costs (ASICs, GPUs) rise or there are export restrictions, this can reduce mining supply and increase operational costs.
Regulation and geopolitics: US-China tensions may accelerate regulatory measures, capital controls, or strategic use of crypto by states/companies, which can change adoption in certain countries.
Flows and exchanges: if tariffs increase trade friction, companies and users may use crypto for cross-border payments.
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