The last quarter of the year has a strange power in the world of Bitcoin - it doesn't always scream, but those who listen carefully often hear early echoes of something big. As 2025 approaches Q4, here's a data-driven, reasoned look at what history suggests, what current market behavior shows, and how you can position yourself before the curtain rises.

It's about the power of Q4 (backed by data)

Bitcoin has shown a historical tendency to rise in the fourth quarter. Some key figures:

Since 2013 and until recently, Bitcoin has closed Q4 in the green in 8 of the last 12 years, with outstanding returns in 2017 (+215%) and 2020 (+168%).

Some metrics place the average Q4 return for Bitcoin at around 85% since 2013.

Other analyses note more conservative seasonal gains — about 27.7% on average for Q4, with October averaging around 9% growth.

For example, Q4 in 2015 gave +82.7%, in 2016 +62.5%, and in 2023 +56.5%.

This does not mean that every Q4 is a sharp peak. In 2018 and 2022, Q4 turned out negative. But the consistency over the years suggests a seasonal shift that cannot be ignored.

What has changed this time

Numbers alone do not move markets — people and psychology do. And in 2025, the behavior of holders and institutions sends interesting signals.

Illiquid supply is growing. Approximately 72% of the circulating Bitcoin supply is held by long-term investors who rarely move their coins.

Institutional accumulation remains steady. Large holders continue to gradually increase their balances each quarter, signaling confidence in long-term growth.

Corporate treasuries are expanding. More public companies are now holding Bitcoin as part of their reserves than ever before.. together they comprise nearly 5% of the total volume.

Lost or abandoned coins narrow the effective supply. It's estimated that 3–4 million BTC are permanently lost, reducing liquid circulation.

Whale activity shows caution. In recent weeks, large holders have taken small profits, creating short-term volatility but not a long-term sell-off.

In aggregate, these trends suggest that many BTC are 'locked' or held for defensive purposes, reducing the number of coins available for aggressive trading. Such a backdrop can amplify price movements as demand rises.

The human side: Fear, Hope, and Timing

If you've been watching the cycles long enough, you know that markets behave not like machines, but rather like people.. emotional, impatient, and often irrational. Q4 tends to catch those who are late to the party or have been overly cautious, not suspecting that momentum may already be building.

Imagine watching Bitcoin slowly rise while your doubts whisper: 'What if this is just a trap?' These doubts have sunk many short-term investors. But those who held through the noise often find themselves on the podium when the price breaks out.

Q4 also tends to amplify narratives. Headlines get louder, social media becomes bullish, and FOMO spreads quickly. This is the psychological shift — from distrust to curiosity — that fuels the early stages of major rallies.

What could Q4 2025 bring

Based on history and current supply dynamics, here are a few possible scenarios:

1. Strong breakout. Given the locked supply and growing demand, Bitcoin may overcome major resistance levels if macroeconomic conditions remain favorable.

2. Slow rise with peaks Instead of parabolic movement, Q4 may bring gradual gains and pullbacks that shake out impatient traders.

3. False start and reversal — If sentiment worsens or liquidity dries up, a temporary rise may vanish before real momentum builds.

Some analysts even note potential long-term targets above $150,000 if seasonal patterns and institutional investor behavior align — although timing and volatility remain unpredictable.

How to prepare before Q4 begins to unfold

If you believe that Q4 could be pivotal, here's how to position yourself wisely:

Plan your entries. Identify key accumulation zones before the crowd notices.

Avoid all-or-nothing decisions. Build positions gradually instead of chasing green candles.

Set clear risk levels. Use stop-losses or hedging strategies if you're actively trading.

Stay informed — but not overloaded. Follow reliable sources and track macro changes, but don't let the noise dictate your actions.

Stay emotionally neutral. Fear and greed are the biggest enemies of investors in Q4.

Q4 for Bitcoin often feels like the calm sea before the storm — quiet accumulation, muted volatility, and distrust. However, those who have survived past cycles know what typically follows.

The technical situation looks promising, the offer is narrowing, and optimism is cautiously returning. Will this be another historic Q4 or a slower transition, one truth remains:

In crypto, opportunities favor the prepared.

Because when Q4 whispers.. smart traders listen.

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