Recently, many friends have shifted from on-chain coins to secondary altcoins, and I want to share my understanding of the underlying gameplay of these two, hoping to inspire you. Let's start with the conclusion: the upward driving logic of on-chain coins and secondary altcoins is completely different. After reading this, you will understand what I mean.

On-chain coins: a game of narrative and transmission

The core of on-chain coins is the imagination of narrative and early low-cost chips. The rise of meme coins is like a transmission chain: from the inner circle to the outer circle, then to CEX users, the narrative attracts buying pressure, pushing up market value, and the last wave of buying provides exit liquidity, after listing attention dissipates, the game ends. A good narrative needs extensibility, able to continuously attract new funds. In the current environment, without CEX users taking over, no matter how strong the market maker controls the supply, it is useless. When the market value reaches 50-80M, retail investors basically clear their positions, and if the market maker continues to push up, they will only face selling pressure; no one is willing to provide liquidity at a loss.

When playing with on-chain coins, you need to think:

How wide can the narrative spread? Does it have extensibility?

How strong is the market maker's control ability?

Is the early chip cost low enough?

Secondary altcoins: The rational game of market makers

The initial pricing of secondary altcoins is set during TGE; the market maker can profit regardless of price fluctuation. The core logic driving the price is: What is the market maker or project team's rationality? If you want to play with secondary altcoins, don’t worry about the narrative; assume you are the market maker with profit as the only goal, and ask yourself: 'Why pump the price?' In most cases, there is no reason to pump. Because coins are printed, initial market values are set arbitrarily, and directly selling for profit is higher without the risk of pumping.

But in some cases, the market maker will choose to pump the price:

Listing on BN's spot market or contracts: BN's spot market + contracts is the core of liquidity, worth pumping for greater future profits. (Observe coins that first list on Alpha and contracts; they often perform well)

High control of chips + short seller's counterpart: Fundamentals are weak but control is strong; pumping the price and forcing shorts is a way to sell. (For example, Myx)

Opportunities for listing on exchanges like Upbit: If the coin price is too low or the candlestick is not good, the project team will unite with the community to pump the price and attract Korean buyers. (Common for new altcoins)

Coin price drives fundamentals: A high coin price can bring more trading volume or airdrop value, allowing the project team to profit from the pump. (For example, Ziyuan captured market share through the second phase airdrop)

Attracting retail investors to follow: Pumping 10-20%, combined with KOL endorsements, continue to sell. (The most common tactic)

If the coin you bought hasn’t hit the BN spot market, doesn’t have high control conditions for short selling, and the business is unrelated to the coin price, congratulations, the support might just be yours 😅.

Examine market maker behavior with 'Why pump the price?'

At different stages, asking 'Why pump the price?' can help you see the market maker's intentions:

After TGE: Just issued an airdrop, pumping the price will only lead to retail investors dumping. It’s better to wait for the chips to naturally fall back, collect 80% before pumping.

During the uptrend: Without short sellers, can we let retail investors profit from the pump? It's better to sell when buying pressure is concentrated or to pass it to the Koreans.

After the pump: If it rises 3 times and still hasn't hit the spot market, the market can't hold, it's better to sell first.

Before unlocking: Investors' and KOLs' chips are about to unlock, and the market maker might run first.

Retail investors' misconceptions and suggestions

Many retail investors fantasize that 'market makers are doing charity,' often asking, 'Why isn’t such a good coin being pumped?' The truth is: market makers only seek profit. Before buying the coin, stand in the market maker's perspective and think, 'What is their purpose?' Then deduce 'What will they do?' Examine the altcoins you recently bought: Is it because it resembles Aster as a Perp DEX? Is it backed by BN investment? Or has it not risen much on Alpha? Don't just look at the surface; ask clearly: 'Why pump the price?'