The American financial circle is being stirred by a power transition that is being prepared in advance—there is still nearly a year until the current Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's term ends in May 2026, and former President Trump has quietly started the selection of a successor, bringing the global competition for the most critical "currency helm" to the forefront. The power of the Federal Reserve Chairman is far from an ordinary position; it controls the "valve" of the global dollar system: easing policies can spur market excitement, while tightening can burst all asset bubbles, and every decision affects the nerves of global capital. Trump's dissatisfaction with Powell has long been made public, frequently criticizing his slow rate cuts as "as slow as a snail" since last year, even insinuating political manipulation, with their conflicts nearly out in the open. Now, Trump has instructed Treasury Secretary Mnuchin to interview candidates in advance, with a clear intention: before the term ends, to bring the helm of the Federal Reserve into the hands of "his people." This selection has shrunk from an initial list of five to three core candidates, who will ultimately be decided by Trump himself. The backgrounds and positions of the three candidates vary in focus but are all highly aligned with Trump's policy demands: • Christopher Waller: Current Federal Reserve Governor, known as the "vanguard of rate cuts." He openly advocates for rate cuts, citing weak consumption and slowing job growth, which aligns perfectly with Trump's demands; at the same time, he emphasizes "maintaining the independence of the Federal Reserve," making him a "compromise safety card" balancing market trust and Trump's expectations. He has often voted in line with Powell, and whether he can "transform from a follower to a helm" depends on Trump's political calculations. • Kevin Hassett: Trump's "trusted confidant," currently the Director of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, deeply involved in economic policy formulation from the first administration to the 2024 campaign, with a strong foundation of trust between the two. Trump has publicly praised him as "very outstanding," and he clearly supports loose monetary policy, completely synchronizing with Trump's push for rate cuts; the only variable is Trump's recent mention of "another Kevin," implying that nothing has been finalized yet. • Kevin Warsh: A "veteran" of the Federal Reserve, who joined the Federal Reserve Board in 2006 as a Morgan Stanley banker, is one of the youngest governors in history. He was already shortlisted for Trump's Federal Reserve Chair candidate list in 2018 and is highly recognized in the financial circle; during the 2008 financial crisis, he served as a key coordinator between the Federal Reserve and Wall Street, possessing both central bank and White House work experience, with a unique advantage of "understanding policy and being familiar with politics." Regardless of who ultimately takes over, this leadership change cannot avoid a core controversy: whether the independence of the Federal Reserve will be compromised. As the cornerstone of global dollar credit, the core credibility of the Federal Reserve stems from "not being subject to government interference and determining policies based on economic realities," but Trump has not only publicly criticized Powell but also drafted a dismissal letter; recently, he fired Federal Reserve Governor Cook on the grounds of "mortgage fraud," who has directly appealed to the Supreme Court, claiming this act is an "excuse to suppress independence," with conflicts fully out in the open. If the new chairman follows Trump's intentions for aggressive rate cuts, it may temporarily boost the US stock market and real estate, but long-term risks have already been buried: while US inflation may decline in 2024, core inflation has not yet reached the 2% target, and blind rate cuts will render previous efforts to control inflation futile; more severely, US debt has surpassed $34 trillion, and while rate cuts may temporarily reduce interest expenses, they will allow the government to further expand borrowing, planting a ticking time bomb for future debt crises. For the world, this leadership change is even more "a single thread pulling the whole body": US rate cuts may alleviate currency depreciation pressures in other countries, but emerging markets will face new turmoil—previous capital outflows caused by Federal Reserve rate hikes have not yet been filled, hot money may flow back to the US, exacerbating market volatility. Even if Trump finalizes a candidate, he still needs to pass through Congress. Currently, the US House and Senate belong to different parties; the Senate Banking Committee has clearly stated that "ending the independence of the Federal Reserve is a major mistake." If the candidate's stance is too controversial, they are likely to be vetoed by Congress; previously, candidates have been rejected for advocating radical policies, so Trump does not have the final say. With less than a year until Powell's departure, competition among the three candidates will become increasingly fierce, and the eventual successor will inevitably face "a pile of mess": how to stabilize inflation, stimulate the economy, balance employment, and soothe the global market, every step feels like walking on a tightrope. This game is by no means just a "financial circle's excitement"; it is closely related to ordinary people's pockets: Federal Reserve rate cuts will directly affect the dollar exchange rate, US stock market trends, and gold price fluctuations, which in turn will impact personal investment returns, international oil prices, and even cross-border consumption costs. This global "struggle for the helm of currency" has only just begun.#鲍威尔发言 #币安HODLer空投ENSO