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#CPIWatch JUST IN: Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that inflation remains below the 2022 highs, but remained above the Fed's long-term target of 2%. Quantitative Tightening or QT will end as of December 1st, 2025. Inflation expectations are elevated for the near term due to tariff-related woes. Near term risks to inflation remain on the 'upside' and that risks to employment remain on the 'downside'. This makes the committee's discussion on a decision difficult. The Committee had strongly differing views on inflation and unemployment, therefore, they are yet to achieve reasonable consensus on the December decision. Powell emphasized that the committee has NOT made a decision on December.
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#CPIWatch #MarketPullback BREAKING: FOMC announces a 25 bps cut in line with market expectations. #FEDDATA
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#CPIWatch Why are the odds that the Fed will cut its policy rate by 25 bps so high? Polymarket shows a 98% chance that the Federal Reserve (the Fed) will announce a 25 basis points (bps) cut. According to the CME FedWatch tool, that probability is 97.8%. In his last FOMC speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that the central bank was more worried about unemployment than inflation. The latest inflation print (CPI increase of 3% against the expected rate of 3.1%), which was released a few days ago, was lower than expected, buttressing the Fed's stance. Since the government shutdown began on October 1st, no unemployment data has been released. Unemployment data is essential for the Fed to inform its decisions. Earlier today, market observer Ted Pillows highlighted a string of layoffs by 15 major companies, including Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta, among others. These layoffs were reported between September and October 2025. Of the 15 companies Pillows named, 12 are headquartered in the US. However, it’s important to note that these are multinational companies, which means that the layoffs are likely not limited to the US. Essentially, these layoffs are not a substitute for national-level unemployment data. Nevertheless, this is the kind of unemployment data that is available during a government shutdown. Powell had pointed out that the last rate cut was not reactionary, but a proactive risk management cut. Since the last meeting, apart from such layoff figures, no other alarming data about US jobs have surfaced. When the Chair announces a cut on Wednesday, he will likely maintain that it’s another risk-management action. Screenshot of Ted's post on X, highlighting the layoffs:
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BREAKING: $BTC just hit $111,302
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#CPIWatch Here’s a Bitcoin (BTC) price snapshot before the FOMC announces its decision on Wednesday: As of 10:14 ET BTC Price: $115759 1H: +0.7% 1D: +0.78% 1W: +5.4% 1M: +5.5% 1Y: +67.54% BTC Spot ETFs (1D): 1300 BTC added BTC Spot ETFs Volume (1D): $4.41 Billion BTC Liquidations (1D): $56.41 Million #BTC
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