๐ฅ The Four-Year Bitcoin Cycle Is Dead โ Liquidity Rules Now. ๐
Arthur Hayes was right โ the halving no longer drives Bitcoin. Global liquidity does. ๐
From 2009โ2021, every $BTC top aligned not with block rewards โ but with credit slowdowns in the U.S. and China.
When the Fed hiked and the PBOC tightened, bull markets died:
๐ 2013
๐ 2017
๐ 2021
Perfect correlation. ๐
But 2025 changed the script.
Trumpโs Fed cut rates into inflation.
Yellen drained the RRP, unleashing $2.5T in liquidity.
Chinaโs Politburo vowed to end deflation.
Global M2 money supply = $107T, and Bitcoin now tracks it 0.8:1. โก
The halving now cuts supply by less than 2%, while ETFs inject $50B+ in demand.
๐ Supply is irrelevant.
๐ฐ Liquidity is everything.
This is not a halving cycle anymore โ
๐ Itโs a Monetary Supercycle.
If the Fed and PBOC keep easing, Bitcoin wonโt โpeakโ โ itโll re-rate higher into a new global monetary order. ๐
๐ The cycle is dead. The liquidity era has begun.
Long live Bitcoin. ๐ง๐ฉ
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