During the U.S. government 'shutdown', Bitcoin has emerged strongly against the trend. This wave of increase is not coincidental but a result of the resonance of three core logics.
The first layer of logic comes from policy expectations support. The government shutdown has led to the suspension of the release of core economic data such as employment and GDP, causing the market to lose a key 'dashboard'. The Federal Reserve finds it difficult to accurately judge the direction of the economy, and the market's expectations for an interest rate cut in October have significantly increased, providing important momentum for the upward price of Bitcoin.
The second layer of logic comes from the highlighting of its safe-haven properties. The traditional financial market has been impacted by policy uncertainty, with volatility continuing to intensify. However, Bitcoin, with its unique advantages of decentralization, global circulation, and 7×24-hour uninterrupted trading, has become a new option for capital seeking safety, attracting a significant inflow of risk-averse funds and further solidifying price support.
The third layer of logic is the synergy between institutional layout and short covering. On one hand, the daily net inflow of the Bitcoin ETF in the United States reached 430 million, with no outflows, and 'smart money' is accelerating its entry into the market; on the other hand, over 400 million in Bitcoin short positions were forced to liquidate due to significant losses. Under the imbalance of long and short forces, the price of the coin is further pushed up.
This round of counter-trend market is not only a concentrated release of short-term market sentiment but also highlights a key shift: Bitcoin is gradually shedding its label as a 'marginal speculative asset' and moving towards being a value storage tool with safe-haven properties akin to gold. Its role in global asset allocation is quietly upgrading.
