At this moment in October 2025, I judge that BNB is in a triple resonance period of 'fundamental consolidation + capital influx + regulatory thaw', and its price space will break free from the valuation constraints of traditional platform tokens, reconstructing value as a 'full-chain infrastructure token'. Combining all core variables, my judgment on its short-term and medium-term price levels and core logic is as follows:

1. Core Drivers: Three major variables open up the valuation ceiling

1. Ecological Qualitative Change: The leap from 'exchange-dependent' to 'public chain leader'

This is the value anchor I value most—BNB is no longer a simple trading fee discount token. The recent DEX trading volume of BNB Chain (BSC) has reached $14.3 billion, surpassing Solana's $8.3 billion, with 4.8 million daily active addresses and a net capital inflow of $73.5 million, and it plans to achieve performance on par with Solana through technical upgrades. More importantly, its ecosystem has formed a 'traffic siphon effect': it not only attracts capital migration from Solana and Arbitrum but also continuously incubates high-quality projects through Launchpad, with TVL soaring from $45 billion at the beginning of the year to $97 billion. This dual drive of 'exchange traffic + public chain ecology' extends BNB's demand from trading scenarios to staking, governance, application gas fees, and other full-chain scenarios, which is an advantage that other platform tokens cannot replicate.

2. Institutional entry: the shift from 'retail speculation' to 'asset allocation'

The large-scale inflow of institutional funds is reshaping BNB's valuation logic. Franklin Templeton injected $1.6 billion in assets to establish an alliance, Nasdaq-listed company B Strategy allocated $1 billion core fund to BNB, Huaxing Capital increased its holdings by $100 million, and Grayscale expanded the BNB trust fund size by 40%. More notably, VanEck submitted a registration application for a BNB ETF, and if approved, it is expected to bring in over $5 billion in incremental funds—referring to the capital absorption effect of Bitcoin ETFs, this will completely open up the institutional holding ceiling for BNB. When BNB becomes corporate treasury assets (e.g., CEA Industries holds $368 million in BNB), its price volatility will significantly decrease, and the valuation anchor will shift towards 'scarcity + ecological value'.

3. Regulatory breakthrough: from 'risk variable' to 'certainty dividend' reversal

The SEC lawsuit in 2023 put pressure on BNB, but now the regulatory environment has fundamentally changed: the SEC has dropped the lawsuit under the Trump administration, established a crypto working group to formulate a new framework, and the EU MiCA compliance label has been implemented. BNB has completed on-chain KYC/AML audits. This addresses the biggest concerns for institutional entry—the users and funds lost by Binance due to compliance issues are now returning with regulatory certainty. For BNB, regulation is no longer a 'black swan', but rather a 'moat' for filtering competitors and solidifying its leading position.

2. Price range prediction: looking at the breakthrough path in stages

Combining the above variables and technical signals, I divide my price judgment for BNB into three stages:

1. Short term (by the end of 2025): stabilize at a thousand, impacting $1300

Currently, BNB has broken through the psychological barrier of $1000, standing firm at the support level of $980, with the RSI indicator at 55 in the neutral zone, showing no overbought pressure. The core driving force behind this wave of increase is 'institutional capital building positions + Fed interest rate cut expectations'—the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October is 87.7%, and liquidity easing will directly benefit risk assets. If the BNB ETF passes the SEC's preliminary review in Q4, combined with the reduction in circulation brought about by quarterly burns (target total of 100 million coins), the price is expected to quickly test the range of $1187-1300, which is also a key resistance level at the weekly scale.

2. Medium term (first half of 2026): the central pivot rises to $1500-$2000

The core catalyst of this stage is 'ecological performance upgrade + RWA landing'. BNB Chain plans to complete Layer 2 expansion (Optimistic + ZK-Rollup) by early 2026, reducing transaction fees to the level of 0.001 BNB; at that time, the explosion of applications such as DeFi and GameFi will further boost BNB demand. Meanwhile, the RWA cooperation between Binance and Franklin Templeton will enter a substantial landing phase, with the first batch of tokenized national bonds expected to exceed $5 billion, and as the core ecological token, BNB will directly benefit from the on-chain inflow of traditional assets. Referring to Coinbase's prediction for 2026 (around $1100), I believe its conservative range is $1500, while the optimistic target could reach $2000—this valuation is already close to the ecological premium level of early Ethereum.

3. Risk bottoming: extreme retracement support at $820

If there is a systematic market correction (e.g., Bitcoin falls below $80,000), BNB may test key support. However, considering that its institutional holding ratio has exceeded 30%, and $820 is the average cost line for institutional positions in Q3 2025, coupled with the supply contraction from quarterly burns, the retracement space is limited. This is also the core basis for my belief that BNB has 'support below and elasticity above'.

3. Unique perspective: do not let the 'platform coin label' limit valuation imagination

Many investors still equate BNB with 'Binance's stock', which is the biggest cognitive misconception. In my view, the essence of BNB's value is 'the ecological hub token of the crypto world':

It serves as the consensus fuel for BNB Chain (similar to ETH), is the equity certificate for Binance Exchange (similar to platform stocks), and is also a value carrier for cross-chain interoperability (already connected with Polkadot and Cosmos);

Its valuation should not only look at Binance's trading commissions but should also account for the $15 billion TVL within the ecosystem and the hidden income from Gas fees, staking rewards, etc., brought by tens of millions of users.

This attribute of 'multiple identities overlay' determines that BNB's valuation ceiling is far from being reached.

4. Operational suggestions: use different positions to respond to different stages

1. Short term (1-3 months): If it retraces to the $950-980 range, it can be added to positions, with a stop loss set at $900 (if it falls below, it indicates the breakout is invalid), and the target is to look at $1300 for a phased profit-taking of 30%;

2. Medium term (6-12 months): Reserve 50% of positions for long-term holding, focusing on tracking the progress of Layer 2 upgrades and ETF approvals in Q1 2026; if realized, positions can be increased to 60%;

3. Risk control: Avoid holding a single cryptocurrency exceeding 20% of the crypto asset portfolio, while also paying attention to the SEC's subsequent statements on 'tokenized securities'—though it currently does not affect BNB, it may impact RWA projects within the ecosystem.

Summary: from 'following Bitcoin' to 'leading the ecological bull'

The future price range of BNB is essentially the marketization of its ecological value. In the short term, it will enjoy liquidity benefits alongside Bitcoin; but in the medium to long term, as BNB Chain becomes a leader among public chains and the proportion of institutional allocation increases, it will enter an independent market. In my view, breaking through $2000 in the first half of 2026 is not an aggressive prediction—after all, when a token possesses four scarce elements: 'exchange traffic, public chain ecology, institutional endorsement, and compliance qualifications', its value reassessment is just a matter of time.

One River, October 2, 2025