📊 Uptober approaching?: technical and narrative signals not to be ignored
October is not an ordinary month for crypto markets. Historically, it is known as 'Uptober', with a track record of often positive performance paving the way for a strong Q4. Two fundamental elements are being added to this:
Growing institutional flows: several reports indicate new inflows into crypto products, particularly into BTC and ETH. The 'strong hands' are returning to accumulate ahead of a potential year-end rally.
Favorable macro narrative: the expectation of more accommodative monetary policies and increased market liquidity strengthen the context for risk assets like crypto and equity.
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🔎 Technical structure (BTC/USDC)
The BTC/USDC chart is outlining a classic pattern: double bottom in the 107k area, also supported by the EMA200 holding.
Neckline in the 118k–124.5k area:
118k is the first psychological and technical threshold to break.
124.5k is the level that would definitively confirm the pattern, opening the way to a potential target in the 140k+ zone.
Volumes: valid breakout only with an increase above the recent average. Without volumes, the risk of false signals remains high.
Indicators:
RSI recovering but not yet overbought → there is room for push.
MACD close to the bullish crossover → momentum building.
Scenarios:
Bullish: daily close above 124.5k → technical target towards 140k, with a possibility of extension towards all-time highs.
Bearish: rejected below 118k → return to the 107k area. Losing this level would invalidate the pattern and open up space to 98k.
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📌 Implications for Q4
If BTC breaks 118–124.5k, we would have the convergence of:
1. Bullish technical figure (double bottom confirmed).
2. Institutional inflows → possible trend accelerator.
3. Positive seasonality of October and Q4, which historically have provided significant rallies.
This combination could mark the start of a new bullish leg not only for BTC but for the entire large-cap crypto sector.
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⚡ In summary:
The key is the 118–124.5k zone. A strong break would confirm the pattern and could trigger a rally towards 140k+ in line with the "Uptober" narrative. Until then, the market remains in consolidation with a positive bias.
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👉 Question: will we see a real Uptober for BTC or will there be another accumulation phase before the decisive breakout?
