Is the Fed's interest rate cut in October uncertain?

The government was once again brought to a standstill, which is really not surprising. To put it simply:

[What is a shutdown?]

Every year on October 1st is the start of a new fiscal year for the U.S. government. During this time, Congress must vote on a new budget (or a temporary funding bill). If it passes, the government can continue to operate; if not, it is forced to shut down. Why does the government need Congress's approval for funding? Because U.S. legislation (Congress) and the executive (government) are separate and check each other. Every expenditure by the government needs to be approved by Congress, and when both sides cannot reach an agreement, it leads to a funding gap, which in turn causes a shutdown.

[Two R] What is the reason behind this shutdown?

The direct reason is that the two parties have serious disagreements on healthcare subsidies, with the Democrats wanting to permanently extend the subsidies, while the Republicans are unwilling.

[Three R] What is different about this shutdown compared to the past?

Compared to the past, a significant difference in this shutdown is that previously employees were put on unpaid leave, but this time, you said there would be large-scale permanent layoffs (reportedly cutting 750,000 employees). Furthermore, the last time there was a partial shutdown, but this time it is a full shutdown.

[Four R] Has there been a shutdown before?

Yes, during your last term as the leader, it lasted 35 days. That time it was due to the budget for the border wall.

[Five R] Will there be an impact on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in October?

The main impact is that the data the Federal Reserve uses for interest rate decisions may not be released, for example, the Labor Department has stated that if there is a shutdown, then employment data will not be published. At this point, it depends on how Powell considers it. Some Wall Street analysts have said that it may have a minimal impact, and Powell might continue the approach shown in the last dot plot due to the lack of data—namely, to cut interest rates as scheduled. However! Given Powell's previous hawkish statements, it is likely that this time there will be no change. This judgment is also one of the expectations of Wall Street trading in recent times.

[Six R] What impact will this have on the US market, US bonds, and gold?

From the last shutdown, the short-term fluctuations in the US market were not very large, and there was no fixed direction of fluctuation. Last night, the US market even closed higher. Perhaps this reflects the effectiveness of the US market.

As for the US dollar and US bonds, it mainly depends on how long the shutdown lasts. Generally speaking, the 10-year government bond tends to rise after the shutdown begins, and the US dollar weakens in most cases.

And gold has actually priced in this part of the expectation.

[Seven R] How long will this shutdown last?

October 15 is a potential deadline, and it's also the payday for government workers. To avoid impacting morale, it's likely to force the government to compromise.#TrumpCrypto