Introduction: When Geopolitics Impacts Your Money
Imagine waking up on a Friday morning and, upon opening your investment app, seeing that your stocks, cryptocurrencies, and even the dollar have plummeted in value. That’s exactly what many investors experienced on June 13, 2025, when the news of a military attack by Israel on Iran triggered a wave of panic in global markets.
The conflict, which until then had been unfolding in a scenario of diplomatic tensions, evolved into direct military action. The immediate result? A sharp decline in stock indices, devaluation of cryptocurrencies, a drop in the dollar, and a historic surge in oil and gold prices.
But what exactly happened? Why did the markets react this way? And, more importantly: how can you protect yourself and even profit from high volatility movements like this?
In this article, we will detail the main events, analyze the impacts on each asset class, and provide strategic guidance for investors.
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The Trigger: Israel's Attack on Iran
On the night of Thursday, June 12, 2025, Israel launched airstrikes against strategic targets within Iranian territory. According to official sources, the attack was classified as "preventive," aimed at neutralizing imminent threats. Israel's Defense Minister, Israel Katz, declared a national state of emergency, anticipating mass retaliation from Iran.
A few hours after the announcement, geopolitical tension spread like wildfire across global stock markets. Investors from Wall Street to Asia, through Europe, rushed to redesign their portfolios in search of protection.
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The Immediate Impact on Major Stock Indices
The reaction in the stock markets was quick and brutal:
Dow Jones: Futures fell 400 points, with losses of nearly 0.9%.
S&P 500: Down 1.1%, erasing recent gains.
Nasdaq 100: Down 1.3%, with an emphasis on technology and semiconductor stocks.
Investors, fearing a greater escalation involving other powers like the United States, quickly migrated from stocks to assets considered safer, such as gold and oil.
Why Do Stocks Fall in War Scenarios?
Historically, armed conflicts create global economic uncertainty. Companies begin to price in higher logistical costs, shortages of raw materials, and a possible slowdown in international trade. Furthermore, large corporations' profit expectations decline, causing investors to flee from risky assets.
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Oil: The Asset That Shot Up the Most
Oil was the big winner (if we can use that term) of the crisis. The price of the barrel exceeded $72 within the first hours after the bombings.
Why?
The answer is simple: the Middle East is one of the largest oil-producing regions in the world. Any conflict between nations in the region generates fear of disruptions in global supply.
Institutional investors and commodity traders rushed to position themselves buying oil, anticipating a possible imbalance between supply and demand.
Opportunity for Gain for the Small Investor
If you follow the commodities market, you know that ETFs like USO (United States Oil Fund) and oil futures contracts are accessible ways to profit from rising barrel prices.
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Gold: The Classic Refuge in Times of Uncertainty
Another asset that stood out was gold, which rose for the third consecutive session, reaching an impressive $3,406.61 per ounce.
When there is fear in the markets, gold always emerges as a safe haven. Major global funds, including central banks and institutional investors, quickly migrated to the precious metal.
How to Invest in Gold
Investors may seek protection through:
Physical gold (bars and coins)
Gold ETFs, such as GLD
Futures contracts
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Dollar: To the Surprise of Many, It Also Fell
Interestingly, the dollar – which often appreciates in many crisis situations – fell by 0.1% on the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index and dropped to its lowest level since March 2022.
This happened because the market had already been anticipating cuts in interest rates by the Federal Reserve, and investors sought other more immediate protection assets, such as gold.
This drop further reinforced the aversion to risk in currencies.
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Cryptocurrencies: A Violent Drop
Those who bet on the stability of cryptocurrencies as geopolitical protection were negatively surprised.
Bitcoin (BTC): Drop of over 2.6%, falling from $107,000 to $102,000 in minutes.
Ethereum (ETH): Down up to 5%, trading around $2,400.
According to Caroline Mauron, co-founder of Orbit Markets, the reaction of cryptocurrencies was aligned with that of traditional risky assets. She highlighted that the technical support level for Bitcoin is around $101,000, but that movement will continue depending on new geopolitical news.
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Impact on Asian Markets
The reflection of the crisis did not take long to reach Asia.
Nikkei 225 (Japan): Down 0.36%.
Topix (Japan): -0.43%.
Kospi (South Korea): Slight increase of 0.38%, showing some resilience.
ASX 200 (Australia): Stability.
Hang Seng futures (Hong Kong): Slight increase, but still under pressure.
The overall picture was one of great caution, with Asian investors monitoring each new update on the conflict.
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What to Expect in the Coming Days?
The market is now in a phase of total uncertainty. The next movements will depend on some key factors:
1. Iran's Response: If there is a large-scale counterattack, markets may sink even further.
2. Position of the United States: So far, the U.S. has stated that it did not participate in the attacks. But there is fear that Washington could be dragged into the conflict.
3. News Flow: Any new statement from global leaders can cause sharp movements.
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Protection Strategies for the Small Investor
In light of this scenario, what can you do?
1. Rebalance your portfolio: Reduce exposure to risky assets in the short term.
2. Seek defensive assets: Gold, energy commodities, and some international fixed income funds can protect your wealth.
3. Use stops on cryptocurrency positions: Avoid large losses.
4. Follow news in real-time: Websites like Bloomberg, Investing, and Infomoney are reliable sources.
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And If You Want to Profit from Volatility?
Some more experienced investors use volatility as an opportunity for quick gains through:
Short selling in stocks and ETFs
Purchase of put options
Tactical allocation in volatility ETFs, such as VXX
Swing trade in oil and gold
But beware: these strategies involve high risk and should only be used by those who already have experience in the market.
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Conclusion: The World Changed in One Night
The episode between Israel and Iran shows us once again how geopolitics can disrupt markets in a matter of hours.
The smart investor is the one who anticipates, builds a balanced portfolio, and knows how to react both in rises and falls.
If you do not have a plan yet
for moments like this, perhaps it is time to study more about risk management and capital protection.
Remember: In times of crisis, quality information is your best asset.
