According to reports from Jin10 data, Citic Securities' research report points out that the gold market has been in a state of fluctuation since the end of April. Factors such as tariff shocks, U.S. fiscal policy, geopolitical issues, and central bank gold purchases have created a complex long-short balance.
The improvement in tariff expectations may come to a temporary halt, and the effects of stagflation are just beginning to manifest. The likelihood of a decline in geopolitical risks within the year is relatively small, and the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates earlier. The global trend of central banks purchasing gold remains stable. Under neutral assumptions, the model predicts that gold prices are expected to exceed $3,730 per ounce by the end of the year.