hype

Today I saw a bunch of fans asking in the background: Has HYPE's decline ended? Can we still play? Should we cut losses?
I opened the candlestick chart directly and saw the problem at a glance—this market has not stopped declining at all!
First, let's look at the data: the death cross has appeared, the volume is shrinking, do you dare to catch the falling knife?

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The latest 4-hour candlestick shows:
The MACD yellow and white lines form a death cross below the zero axis, which is a typical signal for a continuation of the downtrend, indicating that the bears are still in control.
The red column continues, but the volume is shrinking, indicating that no one dares to buy the dip, which is a precursor to a 'slow decline'.

The recent unlock of HYPE tokens looked huge on paper and many people expected a heavy wave of selling. The unlock was worth billions and the mood in the market was tense before it happened. Even so the event passed with almost no real shock. The numbers show a far softer impact than early fears suggested and this has given the project a fresh positive tone.

Right after the unlock an on chain analyst checked the movement of the released tokens. The total unlocked supply was one point seven five million HYPE. Out of this only about six hundred nine thousand tokens were sold through private deals. This is about twenty three percent of the unlock. The rest of the supply stayed inside the ecosystem. Four wallets placed about two hundred thirty four thousand tokens back into staking. The team also placed more than eight hundred fifty thousand tokens into staking through its own support unit. When we add all these actions we see that more than forty percent of the unlocked tokens went directly into staking again. Another thirty five percent stayed in the hands of the team members without being sold. These actions helped reduce stress on the price and kept the market calm.

The fear before the unlock came from the early history of the project. HYPE grew fast when it launched because it gave people a smooth and simple trading feel on chain. It also did not have outside investors in the early days so there was no fear of large investor dumps. This helped the token climb from about four dollars to a high of fifty nine in the next year. But new rivals started to enter the scene and that created pressure. People began to watch the unlock schedule more closely. Some big voices warned that future unlocks could send huge selling waves into the market. One estimate claimed that the unlocks connected to the team could create twelve billion in selling over two years at earlier prices. This idea pushed some holders to cut their positions and the mood turned darker.

But when the first major unlock happened the real selling was far smaller. The unlocked tokens sold were worth about twenty million which is much less than what some feared. The project also runs a steady buyback each month. Last month the buyback amount was around eighty two million which is more than four times the actual selling from the unlock. Because of this the price showed almost no major reaction. It only slipped slightly during the event and then settled back around the mid thirty range.

Whale wallets also became active when the price reached these lower levels. This means large holders may be collecting more tokens at what they see as a fair or cheap level. Whale interest is often taken as a sign that strong hands still believe in the long term growth of the project.

The overall picture looks stable. The unlock pressure was tiny compared to early fear. Many tokens were restaked. Large holders remain active. If the wider market becomes more steady HYPE may slowly build a recovery path. The project has shown that its token economy is not as fragile as some expected and this gives a hopeful outlook for the next steps.
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