zecusdt

It’s the fact that a GBTC-style discount dislocation just appeared around $ZCSH.
Haven’t seen anyone flag this yet (it only became possible this morning) but believe there is a real possibility this becomes the “GBTC trade of this cycle”, with several angles that could end up being profitable.

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Before getting into the current set up around ZEC/ZCSH, it’s worth remembering how GBTC actually broke the market last cycle.

Funds were built, and later blown up, on two different GBTC trades.

The first was the premium arb. The more infamous of the two and the real money printer.

Here, Grayscale let accredited investors subscribe to GBTC at NAV with a six-month lock. Meanwhile GBTC traded in public markets at significant premiums. At the peak those premiums hit ~30-40%.

The playbook became standard:

subscribe at NAV

lock for six months

hedge BTC exposure with CME shorts

sell GBTC at a premium

pocket the spread and lever it

Every TradFi family office, hedge fund tourist, and crypto-native desk was running it.

It became the trade.
Until, well, it didn’t...

In February 2021, GBTC flipped to a discount for the first time.

Anyone mid-lockup was now long GBTC at above-market levels, carrying an expensive hedge, unable to exit, and watching the discount widen to -30%, -40%, even -45%.
This single dislocation helped detonate multiple firms:

3AC, which levered the arb and imploded

BlockFi, which lent BTC into the trade and saw collateral vaporize

Genesis, which absorbed the losses and collapsed

DCG, which became an indirect casualty

and dozens of smaller funds that quietly disappeared

The “risk-free” arb became career/cycle-ending almost overnight.

But the GBTC story did not end there.

After the flip, a new group stepped in. With GBTC now trading at a deep discount, a different trade emerged:

buy GBTC at a discount
wait for regulatory clarity or ETF approval
redeem at NAV
capture the collapse in the discount

Several value-oriented crypto funds piled in. They were early and underwater for a while. But they were ultimately right. The discount evaporated as ETF approval became inevitable.
Two different trades. Two different outcomes. Same product.

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🏋️Today a similar opportunity may have just opened up.
This morning Grayscale filed to convert ZCSH, their Zcash trust, into an ETP. That filing immediately creates the early outline of a GBTC-style discount trade.
ZCSH is trading ~ $33.50 per share today, up roughly twenty-five percent on the news.

But even after today's move, it still trades well below the value of the ZEC it holds.

Yesterday’s trust data, with a lower ZEC price, showed NAV around forty-one dollars per share.

Yesterday’s trust data, with a lower ZEC price, showed NAV around 41 dollars per share.

That is still close to a 20 percent discount. Every ZCSH share is priced materially below the ZEC it represents.

At today’s prices that means:
– NAV roughly $41
– Market price roughly $33.50
– Implied ZEC per share roughly 0.0817

So you are effectively getting ZEC exposure at ~$410 per ZEC when spot is well above that.

The current trust structure does not allow redemptions.

The proposed ETP would, with one-to-one withdrawals of the actual ZEC held.

If Grayscale gets approval (reasonably likely under this admin), the discount should tighten and ZCSH should move toward NAV.

This is exactly what happened with GBTC as ETF approval became more realistic.

Not guaranteed. Not the same trade.
But structurally very similar.

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Here is why this matters from a money-making perspective:

1. The discount closing is the cleanest angle.
Buying ZCSH at a 20 percent discount and selling after convergence is the purest version of the trade.

2. There is optionality if ZEC rerates during the approval window.
If the privacy-oriented store-of-value narrative strengthens, ZEC can rise while the discount closes.
That creates a second leg of upside that GBTC did not offer until very late.

3. A ZEC ETP could unlock new demand.
Most funds/investors cannot hold ZEC directly due to custody and mandate issues.
An ETP solves that. New pools of capital often tighten discounts by themselves.

4. There are meaningful narrative and political tailwinds.
Bitcoin’s lack of privacy is back in focus.
The quantum-risk discussion is getting louder.

And you can see that the narrative is real, even off CT, with the CEO of VanEck on CNBC talking about Bitcoin’s shortcomings and mentioning ZEC as a potential hedge.

As that conversation permeates mainstream platforms, it is generally a strong signal that the narrative is gaining real momentum, with both traditional allocators and crypto-institutional players believing the move has actual substance behind it (more reasons to allocate).

Put simply, if markets keep leaning toward the idea that ZEC is absorbing the role Bitcoin stepped away from, then ZCSH becomes the cleanest vehicle to express that view.

You get ZEC exposure in public markets, which could become a major driver of rerating as flows pick up, plus a built-in twenty percent discount that only exists until the ETP is approved.

I will explain everything in my upcoming live sessions on Binance and YouTub.. Don't skip
Follow me for more updates 🎃

Trade here 👉 $ZEC
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