PredictionMarket

While the market is still fluctuating, one piece of information caught my attention: Polymarket is in discussions to raise funds at a valuation of up to 12-15 billion USD. A huge number, placing it among the most valuable crypto projects in the market.
So why is a platform that "bets" on real-life events valued so highly?

The essence of the matter: Polymarket is not just gambling. It is a prediction market, where the flow of money and trading volume reflect the probability of an event occurring in the real world, from politics and economics to culture. It turns "belief" into a tradable asset.

Kalshi Predicts 317,000 Government Job Cuts
According to prediction markets by Kalshi, the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) is expected to lay off up to 317,000 government employees in 2025. The agency has already cut thousands of jobs and offered deferred resignation incentives to many others.
Recent forecasts suggest that the markets now anticipate over 30,000 additional job cuts in the coming year. According to the Kobeissi Report, this figure represents a 107,000 increase compared to previous estimates from last month.
Government Efficiency Department Focuses on Cost-Cutting
The Department of Government Efficiency, led by Elon Musk, is committed to reducing government spending, a move anticipated following Donald Trump’s election as U.S. president.
🔹 The department aims to streamline government operations by cutting redundancies and optimizing the federal workforce.
🔹 Health agencies under the Department of Health and Human Services have already announced layoffs.
🔹 Other agencies, including the CDC, Medicare, and Medicaid Services, have also experienced staff reductions.
Earlier in February, the White House offered federal employees the option of deferred resignation in exchange for financial incentives. According to the Office of Personnel Management, 75,000 federal workers accepted the offer as of February 12.

More Federal Agencies Report Massive Layoffs
Following Trump’s return to office, layoffs have particularly affected employees on probationary periods.
🔹 Government data shows that as of March 2024, 220,000 employees fell into this category.
🔹 The Department of Veterans Affairs has also announced layoffs of over 1,000 employees who had been with the agency for less than two years.
🔹 Among those laid off were researchers working on cancer treatments, opioid addiction, and prosthetics.
📉 Federal employee unions have confirmed that over 40 employees were let go from the Department of Education. Additionally, budget cuts of approximately $900 million are expected for the Institute of Educational Services.
Other agencies reporting layoffs include:
🔹 National Park Service
🔹 Internal Revenue Service (IRS)
🔹 Department of Homeland Security (DHS)
🔹 Department of Energy
Musk Turns to Prediction Markets to Evaluate Policy Impact
Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour revealed that Elon Musk is increasingly relying on prediction markets to monitor the effectiveness of DOGE policies.
Mansour explained that prediction markets serve as a valuable tool not only for businesses but also for governments, allowing them to evaluate policy effectiveness. He cited the futarchy model proposed by Robin Hanson, which suggests that governments use prediction markets to determine which policies will likely yield the best outcomes.
Mansour believes that Musk’s approach could inspire other government agencies to start utilizing predictive analytics for tracking their policy goals.
DOGE Has Reportedly Saved the U.S. Government Over $50 Billion
According to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, the DOGE department has helped the U.S. government save over $50 billion. Musk has suggested that this figure could eventually surpass $2 trillion.
James Fishback, CEO of investment firm Azoria, proposed that the government implement a "DOGE Dividend", which would provide a $5,000 tax refund for every U.S. citizen. Under his plan, citizens would receive 20% of DOGE’s savings as direct payments via checks.
Musk responded to the proposal, stating that he would discuss the idea with Trump.
However, questions remain about how Musk plans to achieve $2 trillion in savings. Some economists point out that DOGE has so far only reduced spending by $4 billion, which is a small fraction of the $2 trillion federal deficit.
📉 Analysts warn that if Congress approves the proposed tax package, the deficit could increase by an additional $4 trillion.
What’s Next?
While Musk’s cost-cutting strategy appears effective, economists remain skeptical about its long-term impact.
💡 Will these layoffs result in real savings, or will they have negative consequences for the economy and federal services? 🚀

#DOGE , #ElonMusk. , #CryptoNewss , #predictionmarket , #TRUMP

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