Elliottwave

#sol #solana $SOL
On the daily chart of SOL/USD, a large corrective pattern (W)–(X)–(Y) is observed. Wave (X) completed around 253 USD, and now the price is showing signs of transitioning into a downward phase, forming wave (Y).
🔹 Main scenario: a decline towards 160–150 USD, where an intermediate support may form. If selling pressure intensifies, the structure suggests a move even lower — into the 100–80 USD range.

Bitcoin’s recent price movements have many traders questioning whether we’ve already hit the bottom, or if more losses are still in the cards. The current rally has been strong, but it’s only shown three waves so far — not the full five-wave structure Elliott Wave theory would expect for a confirmed bullish impulse. Because that structure is incomplete, there are two main scenarios to watch in the coming days.
Scenario 1: Wave B Corrective → Deeper Wave C Drop

In this scenario, the recent upswing is interpreted as Wave B of a larger correction. If this plays out, Bitcoin might drop further in a Wave C phase, possibly heading toward $103,000–$100,600. Such a move could catch late buyers off guard and shake out weaker hands before any stronger rally resumes. For traders considering longs, it’s wise to wait for confirmation before entering — this path suggests risk remains high.
Scenario 2 (Favored): Final Shakeout Over, Bottom in

The more bullish outlook suggests the recent sharp decline acted as the final shakeout — marking the end of a corrective phase. If this view is correct, Bitcoin has already found its low, and we’re now seeing the beginning of a second 1-2 wave structure. That means the market could now be positioning for a fresh push upwards, consistent with the larger long-term trend.
Key Levels to Monitor

Type Level(s) Importance

Immediate support ~$109,971 If price drops below this, it would undermine the bullish scenario and likely mean more correction.
Bullish targets ~$115,000+; possible extension toward $120,000–$125,000 If the upside momentum holds, these are likely levels.
Bearish targets ~$103,000–$100,600 If correction continues, these zones may act as strong support zones.
Trading Approach

✅ Long Entries may make sense for those aligning with the bullish outlook, especially if risk can be tightly managed.

❌ Invalidation: A decisive break below ~$109,971 would favor the bearish scenario and suggest deeper downside ahead.
#BTC #Bitcoin #ElliottWave #CryptoAnalysis

Bitcoin’s recent price action has left traders debating whether the bottom is already in or if more downside is still on the table. The latest rally, while strong, appears to have unfolded in only three waves rather than the more structured five-wave impulse that Elliott Wave theory often requires to confirm a clear bullish leg. This incomplete structure opens the door to two possible paths in the days ahead.

Scenario 1: Corrective Wave B → Deeper Wave C Sell-Off
The first scenario suggests that the recent move was a corrective rally forming Wave B of a larger corrective structure. If this view plays out, Bitcoin could face another leg lower in the form of Wave C, targeting the $103,000–$100,600 range. This would essentially trap late buyers and flush out weak hands before the next significant leg higher. Traders considering this scenario should be cautious with fresh long positions until confirmation arrives, as the risk of another sharp correction remains high.

Scenario 2 (Primary View): Final Shakeout Completed
My primary outlook is more constructive. The sharp drop we just witnessed may have represented the final shakeout, completing a corrective phase and setting up a second 1–2 wave structure. If this count is correct, it means the bottom is already in, and Bitcoin is preparing to resume its upward march. This second 1–2 setup would be highly bullish, as it implies strong continuation potential and aligns with Bitcoin’s broader macro uptrend.

Key Levels to Watch
Immediate Support: $109,971. A break below this level would invalidate the bullish second 1–2 setup and likely confirm a deeper correction is underway.

Bullish Targets: If the bullish count holds, Bitcoin could reclaim momentum toward $115K+, with further extensions targeting $120K–$125K over the coming weeks.

Bearish Targets: Should the corrective path unfold, traders should look for downside targets between $103K and $100.6K, where strong demand is expected to emerge.

Trading Strategy
✅ Long entries are reasonable in the current zone for traders aligning with the bullish second 1–2 wave outlook, as the risk/reward remains attractive. Position sizing and tight risk management are critical here.

❌ Invalidation comes with a decisive break below $109,971, which would favor a corrective extension and delay the bullish breakout.

Conclusion
While uncertainty remains due to the incomplete three-wave structure, the broader setup continues to favor bulls. Either the market is in the last stages of a corrective dip, or we have already seen the low and Bitcoin is gearing up for a new leg higher. In both cases, the risk of entering shorts at current levels appears limited, while long setups with proper stop-loss management offer compelling potential.

For now, I remain optimistic: the odds lean toward the bottom being set and Bitcoin preparing for its next bullish leg.

$BTC #crypto #ElliottWave

#crypto #ElliottWave