đ Deep Dive: Bitcoinâs Scarcity Explained
đš 95% of all Bitcoin is already mined.
That means almost the entire supplyâ19.95M out of 21M BTCâis circulating or held by long-term investors, institutions, or lost forever.
đ Only 5% of the supply is left â and the timeline is wild
Because of Bitcoinâs halving schedule, the remaining supply enters the market extremely slowly:
1ď¸âŁ 4% mined by 2035 (next ~10 years)
Over the next decade, miners will release only a small fraction of BTC as block rewards continue dropping.
⢠2028 halving â reward drops to 1.5625 BTC
⢠2032 halving â reward drops to 0.78125 BTC
This period will see ~840,000 BTC minedâjust 4% of the total supply.
2ď¸âŁ Final 1% mined by 2140 (+115 years)
After 2035, the mining rate collapses due to halving.
⢠By 2040 â 99.9% of BTC mined
⢠After 2050 â annual emission becomes almost microscopic
⢠The last satoshi is expected around 2140
This slow tail emission ensures predictability, security, and absolute scarcity.
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đĽ Why this matters
1. Bitcoin becomes more scarce than anything humans have ever created
Gold supply grows ~1.5% per year.
Fiat grows unlimited.
Bitcoin supply growth goes to 0.000âŚ% â approaching zero.
2. Declining new supply + rising global demand = upward pressure
⢠ETFs
⢠Nation-state adoption
⢠Corporations adding BTC to balance sheets
⢠Lightning & global settlement usage
All this demand is fighting over the final 5%.
3. Long-term holders dominate
More than 70% of Bitcoin hasnât moved in over a year, meaning the liquid supply is far smaller than the headline numbers.
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đ Bottom Line
Bitcoin isnât just scarce â it is mathematically guaranteed scarcity.
95% mined.
5% left.
And almost all of that will arrive before 2035.
This is why Bitcoin is the hardest asset ever created.
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