2025

Bitcoin has lost a third in seven weeks, and folks want answers. The prevailing sentiments among the podcasts, Substack articles, newsletters and socials are:
The most recent leg down caught many folks off guard.There are plenty of technical explanations: ETF outflows, DATs < mNAV, 10/10 damage, retail focused elsewhere and end of the "cycle."There are plenty of macro explanations: Fed rate cut probability decreasing, lingering damage from the government shutdown and the Clarity Act delay.Hey, this is crypto, it draws down by 1/3 sometimes.Sentiment is max negative.Possibly setting up for a rally, but maybe not in time to save 2025.

The crowd seems to have navigated the five stages of grief and emerged humble and sanguine. (A nagging question: was there enough grief, or is this another false bottom? Did capitulation occur?)

The humility, in particular, was most welcome, and best captured in Eric Peters's superb "wknd notes." With a wink, he alludes to the most vacuous form of market commentary, "There are more #sellers than buyers."

"..what we mean when we say that markets move because there are more #buyers than sellers is that when prices start to really move, it’s okay to not understand why. We say this to remind ourselves that anything can happen. It’s a protective mechanism.”

He reminds us that humility is not only a virtue, but necessary for survival:

“Investors who blow up and lose everything tend to believe that they know exactly why a market should be moving. They may believe it should move higher, and get stubbornly longer, leveraging up even as it moves lower, and lower and lower. Or vice versa. The survivors in this game have watched enough people destroy themselves in such a way that we prefer to accept the wisdom of markets. We learn that when prices fall even as most traders/investors think they should rise, there must be a reason. We just don’t know it yet. Sooner or later, we will."

One manager's #view

It's all well and good to be humble and sanguine, but when you are running two hedge funds, you also have to make decisions. On Friday, I brought Chris Sullivan from Hyperion Decimus on for a CoinDesk Markets Outlook spot. (Disclosure: Hyperion Decimus is a client of CoinDesk Indices.)

We agreed (both being derivatives people) that market volatility, while anxiogenic, can also be exhilarating. A roller coaster. Chris sees a V-shaped event ahead, declaring that it is (or will soon be) time to "feast on fear." We also agreed that seeing more developed put skew in bitcoin in the last few weeks was a healthy sign that the market is maturing (i.e., that recent downside hedging resembles more mature asset classes). Two more observations: 1) big wallets which may have sold above 100k appear to be buying back 20% lower and 2) trend signals have allowed his funds to step out of the way weeks ago and have plenty of dry powder.

Trend has been a good friend in #2025

Speaking of trend, it is turning out to be a savior of 2025 performance.  Our Bitcoin Trend Indicator (BTI), launched in March 2023, uses a quartet of moving average crossover signals to indicate the presence and strength of trend in the price of bitcoin. It has indicated "Significant Downtrend" for 24 days. Our clients have implemented several strategies based on BTI to allocate to — and away — from bitcoin. The YTD performance of one of those appears below.

As more and more investors and advisors adopt bitcoin and crypto into long-term portfolios, a trend overlay can help "smooth the ride" and keep folks in the game. It's especially pertinent now, as concerns that self-fulfilling "end-of-cycle" behavior weigh on bitcoin's price.

Source: Binance News / Bitdegree / #CoinDesk / Coinmarketcap / Cointelegraph / Decrypt

"Place a trade with us via this post mentioned coin's & do support to reach maximum audience by follow, like, comment, share, repost, more such informative content ahead"

The crypto market is experiencing one of its strongest phases in 2025, with financial institutions entering and blockchain networks expanding like never before. Bitcoin is becoming closer to a 'digital gold', while the Ethereum upgrade and Layer 2 solutions have provided speed and low fees that enhanced the spread of decentralized applications.

Solana continues to steal the spotlight with its fast transactions and the flourishing of its projects, becoming a preferred environment for developers and investors. As many countries begin to establish clearer laws for digital assets, global confidence and adoption have risen.

Entering 2025, the crypto market is showing many interesting signs. After a strong correction period in late 2024, smart money is starting to return, creating the foundation for a new growth cycle. Below are my personal perspectives after observing the market and experiencing direct trading on Binance.

⸻

1. Bitcoin – From “speculative asset” to “official storage asset”

The maturity of the market is most evident in Bitcoin. The fact that more and more large organizations are holding BTC makes 2025 a period of consolidating its role as “digital gold”.

I think that this year, BTC is no longer a short-term up-and-down game, but becomes a stable pillar of the portfolio. Big money continues to prioritize Bitcoin before spreading to other groups.

⸻

2. Altcoin – The “project filtering” cycle is complete

2024 is a year of strong purification: weak projects without real products are almost eliminated from the game.

Entering 2025, tokens with clear products in areas such as:
• AI + Crypto,
• RWA (real assets),
• Gaming with real users,
are attracting attention.

I expect this year, altcoins will no longer increase “in unison”, but will increase according to thematic capital flow (narrative). Whoever grasps the narrative early will have a huge advantage.

⸻

3. Layer 2 – Race for speed and transaction fees

Layer 2 is still one of the fastest growing areas. Higher speed, cheaper fees, EVM compatibility… make money flow from investors and developers.

I am looking at three factors to assess the potential:

• TVL growth rate
• Real user activity
• Real applications running on the network

Projects that satisfy all three factors are usually good candidates for the medium term in 2025.

⸻

4. Big opportunity from RWA - Bridge between traditional finance and crypto

RWA (tokenization of real assets) is predicted to be one of the most sustainable directions in 2025. Interestingly, this narrative is not just "heating up" according to the trend, but is also promoted by large funds.

Personally, I see RWA as a gateway for crypto to get closer to global finance, and a segment worth considering in the long-term portfolio.

⸻

5. What do investors need in 2025?

From my market observations and trading experience, I have drawn three conclusions:
• Be patient with BTC, flexible with altcoins
• Always follow the capital flow instead of just following the price
• Manage risks closely, especially when participating in futures

2025 may open up huge opportunities, but only for those who are well prepared and have a clear strategy.

⸻

Conclusion

The crypto market in 2025 is no longer the “Wild West” of the previous period. Institutional money flow, clear narrative and community maturity show that a new growth cycle is gradually taking shape.

Hopefully this perspective will help you shape a better strategy in 2025.
Wishing you safe, disciplined trading and always being one step ahead of the market! 🚀
#BTCRebound90kNext? #USJobsData #WriteToEarnUpgrade #2025