At Ethogos, our crypto investment philosophy is built on discipline, risk control, and a deep understanding of market behavior.
In crypto, volatility is constant — but volatility itself is not risk. Risk is the probability of permanent capital loss, often driven by poor positioning, excessive leverage, or paying the wrong price for an asset. Assets that appear “safe” due to strong narratives or momentum can become dangerous when expectations are stretched, while volatile assets can offer attractive opportunities when risk is properly managed.
Crypto markets are highly cyclical, shaped by liquidity, sentiment, and leverage. Periods of euphoria tend to compress risk perception, while downturns create forced selling and inefficiencies. Ethogos does not attempt to predict short-term price movements; instead, we focus on identifying where we are in the cycle and positioning accordingly.
We emphasize second-order thinking: not just whether an asset is strong, but what is already priced in, what could break the thesis, and how outcomes skew under different scenarios. Our objective is not to be right all the time, but to avoid large drawdowns, preserve capital, and allow compounding to work over time.
In crypto, long-term success is less about bold predictions — and more about consistency, humility, and control.
Has Altcoin Reached the Bottom in This Cycle?
According to statistics from previous cycles, altcoin usually hits the bottom after about 350–400 days from its peak.
As of now, it has been about 385 days since the altcoin peak in December 2024, and for me, this timeframe is a very significant signal.
It shows that the altcoin market is nearing the final stages of the correction cycle, at least in terms of time.
If we look at Bitcoin separately, I agree that it doesn't feel like a traditional bear market. $BTC still maintains a fairly stable structure, volatility is controlled, and there hasn't been panic selling pressure.
But when I look at altcoin, the story is completely different. In 2025, for me, it is clearly a bear market year for altcoin: prices drop sharply, liquidity dries up, old narratives break, and speculative money almost disappears.
That's why I think the bottom of altcoin is very, very close. It's not for all-in, but to observe, prepare, and start thinking long-term instead of just reacting based on short-term emotions.
#BTC
{spot}(BTCUSDT)
NEW BUY SIGNAL? Check out XVG charts 💥
Writing about and monitoring XVG for approximately one year, there are indications showing a possible „priced in“ level, combined with a growth of positive volume which bends bollinger and MACD into an upward trend.
Let’s be crystal clear - No crystal bowl available at this end of the keyboard but speculating into a bullish trend which could try to test the 0,01 USDC resistance, based on the coins use case (hype for privacy coins) and a weakness of other alternatives. In my opinion XVG is „the real crypto deal“ (nobody monitors, huge potential as it never will be centralized and moves without leaving traces). I think that’s what speculative trading is all about - Including it’s risks and chances and looking for hidden bargains.
Are you risking it as well with XVG ? Feel free to comment $XVG
No financial advice. Do your own research, take your own risks.