Kairon Labs

LAST WEEK RECAP:

U.S. CPI accelerated to 0.3% MoM and 2.7% YoY in Nov, the same as estimated.U.S. Core CPI was 0.3% MoM and 3.3% YoY in Nov, also in line with estimatesU.S. PPI increased to 0.4% MoM in Nov, higher than the 0.2% estimated, the annual rate was 3%U.S. Core PPI was 0.1% MoM in Nov, lower than the 0.2% estimated, the annual rate was 3.5%Microsoft shareholders vote against BTC investmentMicrostrategy has been added to the Nasdaq 100 indexGrayscale launched the Lido and Optimism investment fundMicrostrategy bought another 21,550 BTC with an average of $98,783. So far, MicroStrategy holds a total of 423,650 Bitcoins, with an average cost of $60,324
LEGACY MARKETS – DXY

DXY has nearly fully recovered from its previous decline and is gearing up to break into new highs again, which may pressure risky assets.

LEGACY MARKETS – VIX

The VIX remained confined to a tight range, indicating subdued market volatility. The absence of notable surges suggests stable investor sentiment.

BTC WEEKLY VIEW

After consolidating around the 100K level, BTC retested the daily MA30 and broke through to a new ATH on Sunday, reaching approximately 105K. We may see an uptrend after the correction.

ETH WEEKLY VIEW

ETH experienced a sharp hit last Monday, dropping nearly 10% in a single day. Over the week, the price gradually recovered to its previous levels but has yet to reach a new high. This also indicates strong buy interests and, thus, a sign of strength.

ETH/BTC

In the context of BTC continuously setting new highs, ETH has yet to show significant strength. However, ETH/BTC is currently breaking the previous downtrend line, and we should keep an eye on whether it can play the catch-up.

TOTAL3 USD MARKET STRENGTH

TOTAL3 was also hit hard on Monday, similar to ETH, and it found support at lower levels and rebounded.

TOTAL3 BTC MARKET STRENGTH

We did see the pullback we mentioned from last week, mainly because BTC has continuously set new highs while other coins are still recovering from Monday's decline. This also proves that other coins don't seem to have much upside momentum before Bitcoin shows any weakness.

SUMMARY
BTC continues to set new highs and dominate the cryptocurrency market, making other coins relatively weak.After experiencing a sharp decline, ETH has returned to the price level before the drop.Altcoins also experienced a sharp decline last week but found some support at lower levels. However, there hasn't been a strong rebound yet. BTC may need to weaken before gaining any momentum.

DISCLAIMER:
The information in this report is for information purposes only and is not to be construed as investment or financial advice. All information contained herein is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell digital assets or other financial products.

LAST WEEK RECAP:

U.S. PCE increased 0.2% MoM and 2.3% YoY, both in line with estimates.U.S. core PCE increased 0.3% MoM and 2.8% YoY, both in line with estimates.U.S. Appeals Court reversed Tornado Cash sanctions.US ETH ETF’s inflow on Nov 29th exceeded US BTC ETF inflow for the first time.Polkadot 2.0 is expected to be launched in Q1 2025.Decentralized perpetual exchange Hyperliquid launched HYPE token.
LEGACY MARKETS – DXY

The dollar was rejected after attempting to break out of the supply zone. It now needs to consolidate around the current level before making any potential moves to the upside, which might likely continue supporting the risk assets market.
LEGACY MARKETS – VIX

The VIX remains subdued, reflecting stable market sentiment and largely unchanged expectations.
BTC WEEKLY VIEW

Bitcoin continues to hover around the 100K level. While it faced a pullback last week, it quickly recovered, indicating that market sentiment remains bullish with strong buyer confidence.
ETH WEEKLY VIEW

Last week, Ethereum showed strong performance with significant volume gain. This momentum was further supported by the overall bullish sentiment in the market, with Ethereum benefiting from rotation into altcoins amid Bitcoin's consolidation.
ETH/BTC

ETH rebounded from its recent lows as the ETH/BTC ratio reached 0.03, driven by increased institutional interest and ETF inflows. Once the downside trendline is broken, the breakout is likely to continue.
TOTAL3 USD MARKET STRENGTH

The rise of TOTAL3 aligned with previous expectations, with healthy growth in both the trading volume and the extent of the increase.
TOTAL3 BTC MARKET STRENGTH

TOTAL3/BTC has broken the trendline and is picking up momentum as it keeps moving up.
SUMMARY
ETH has gained some upward momentum, which is definitely worth attention.Altcoins have met previous expectations of an upcoming rise, and this trend is likely to continue.
DISCLAIMER:
The information in this report is for information purposes only and is not to be construed as investment or financial advice. All information contained herein is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell digital assets or other financial products.

LAST WEEK RECAP:
Bitcoin reached $99K ATHUS BTC ETFs recorded 5 consecutive days of inflowsSEC chair Gary Gensler to step down in JanuaryTrump names pro-crypto Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary pickNvidia beats Q3 revenue and EPS estimatesBTC ETF option begins tradingMSTR (MicroStrategy) becomes the most traded U.S. stock on Nov 21stArkham will launch a spot trading platform in the U.S.
LEGACY MARKETS – DXY

The dollar pushes for a breakout out of the big range, with no significant rejection observed. It now looks more like a retest.
LEGACY MARKETS – VIX

VIX is still muted as the market expectations remain largely unchanged.
BTC WEEKLY VIEW

Bitcoin continues to make new highs within its uptrend. It faced significant selling pressure after coming just 1k short of breaking the 100k mark, leading to a pullback. We anticipate that BTC will consolidate again near the 100k level.
ETH WEEKLY VIEW

ETH has followed BTC’s rally and broken above its previous high but remains relatively weak overall.
ETH/BTC

ETH is showing relative strength.
TOTAL3 USD MARKET STRENGTH

TOTAL3 exhibited a varied performance as altcoins posted modest gains with healthy incremental growth observed.
TOTAL3 BTC MARKET STRENGTH

TOTAL3/BTC has a breakout and subsequent retest; we expect it to continue its upward momentum.
SUMMARY
Eyes are still on TOTAL3/BTC as it shows relative strength post-elections.
DISCLAIMER:
The information in this report is for information purposes only and is not to be construed as investment or financial advice. All information contained herein is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell digital assets or other financial products.

LAST WEEK RECAP:

U.S. CPI increased 0.2% MoM and 2.6% YoY in October, same as estimates. U.S. core CPI increased 0.3% MoM and 3.3% in October, same as estimates.U.S. PPI increased 0.2% MoM in October, same as estimates, the annual rate is 2.4%.Powell said there’s no hurry to cut rate given strong economy.BTC price reached $93K ATH and beats silver to become 8th largest asset in world.U.S. Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) led by Elon Musk launched X account.On-chain meme trading platform DEXX suffered $16.79M security breach.Consensys’s layer2 network Linea will launch token in Q1 2025.
LEGACY MARKETS – DXY

With Trump winning the elections the dollar is pushing for a breakout out of the big range. With the strength into range high it could lead to markets building ranges/ being choppy for a while.
LEGACY MARKETS – VIX

VIX is still muted after the elections.
BTC WEEKLY VIEW

BTC is seeing it’s first consolidation after the big impulse. The rally has been really vertical so it makes sense for the market to take a bit of a breather short term.
ETH WEEKLY VIEW

ETH is again relatively weaker and isn’t near ATH’s yet.
ETH/BTC

ETH/BTC also retraced it’s entire post election rally.
TOTAL3 USD MARKET STRENGTH

TOTAL3 also rotated it’s structure and the market has seen some big rallies especially in the meme coin sector.
TOTAL3 BTC MARKET STRENGTH

TOTAL3/BTC has held it’s initial rotation from the election. And is seemingly trying to fully rotate out.
SUMMARY
Eyes on TOTAL3/BTC as it’s showing relative strength post elections.
DISCLAIMER:
The information in this report is for information purposes only and is not to be construed as investment or financial advice. All information contained herein is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell digital assets or other financial products.

LAST WEEK RECAP:
Trump is elected as the 47th U.S. presidentFed cuts rates by another 25 bp, as expectedBTC reaches all-time high and BTC ETF posted a record daily net inflow of $1.38 billion on Nov 7thBank of England cut 25 bps, in line with market expectationsDetroit becomes the largest US city to accept BTC and crypto for taxes
LEGACY MARKETS – DXY

With Trump winning the elections, the dollar is pushing for a breakout out of the big range. For now the range high has held for the last 2 years.
LEGACY MARKETS – VIX

As expected the VIX has completely died out after the election uncertainty.
BTC WEEKLY VIEW

With Trump coming into office, BTC has finally gotten its major breakout of ATH. With the US now entering a very pro-crypto regime, things are looking good for the mid/long term.
ETH WEEKLY VIEW

Same for ETH with Trump winning elections it finally got it’s major break. After a straight vertical move like that it would be quite good for the market to take a bit of a breather in the majors while midcaps start catching up.
ETH/BTC

ETH/BTC has found some relative strength but still hasn’t actually broken the bearish market structure.
TOTAL3 USD MARKET STRENGTH

TOTAL3 also finally saw its big move. Structurally, it's still not a breakout, but it’s at the top of the range now.
TOTAL3 BTC MARKET STRENGTH

TOTAL3/BTC is also still in a bearish market structure, and we’re still waiting for the rotation. This likely happens when BTC builds its first larger range above ATHs. That was also the point in 2021 when “alt season” started.
SUMMARY
Crypto is catching a major boost because Trump is winning elections and has a very pro-crypto stance.BTC is breaking ATHs convincingly.
DISCLAIMER:
The information in this report is for information purposes only and is not to be construed as investment or financial advice. All information contained herein is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell digital assets or other financial products.

LAST WEEK RECAP:

U.S. non-farm payrolls increased 12K in October, much less than the expected 110K due to storms and strikes. The unemployment rate remains at 4.1%, the same as estimated.U.S. PCE increased 0.2% MoM and 2.1% YoY in October, the same as estimated.U.S. Core PCE increased 0.3% MoM, same as estimated, The annual rate is 2.7%, slightly higher than 2.6% expected.MicroStrategy plans to raise $42B over the next 3 years to buy more BTC.Coinbase reported weaker-than-expected third-quarter results mainly due to lowered trading in the crypto market.U.S BTC ETF recorded $870M inflow last Tuesday, marks the 3rd largest daily inflow.Florida’s Chief Financial Officer says the state holds over $800M in crypto-related investments.Tether reported a $2.5B quarterly profit, a year-to-date profit of $7.7B
LEGACY MARKETS – DXY

DXY is consolidating on mid-range. With elections this week, the market is likely to see further-ranging price action.
LEGACY MARKETS – VIX

VIX has seen some upward movements. It's likely for hedging into elections.
BTC WEEKLY VIEW

BTC is still consolidating near ATHs. We started seeing a bit of bleedback down going into the elections. For now, it will likely continue until the uncertainty of the outcome is over.
ETH WEEKLY VIEW

ETH is still in the 2.4-2.7 range, and ETH/BTC is still struggling to find any relative strength.
ETH/BTC

ETH/BTC is still in a heavy downtrend and struggling to find any relative strength over BTC.
TOTAL3 USD MARKET STRENGTH

Alts are still very sensitive to any kind of BTC down move. Ideally, this will start receding, and the ALT/BTC ratio will start to gain some serious strength. However, for now, it’s not the case just yet.
TOTAL3 BTC MARKET STRENGTH

TOTAL3/BTC broke lows while BTC.D touched the 60% mark. For now, it’s still a waiting game until ALT/BTC starts picking up.
SUMMARY
The market is trading nervously into the elections. With it bleeding into the results, it’s likely to see a bounce after the results come in, with hedges coming off and people buying back exposure they derisked.
DISCLAIMER:
The information in this report is for information purposes only and is not to be construed as investment or financial advice. All information contained herein is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell digital assets or other financial products.

LAST WEEK RECAP:

Israel launched airstrikes on Iran in a retaliatory attack but spared oil and nuclear sites.Wall Street Journal reported U.S. investigators are conducting a criminal investigation into Tether, but Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino said there is no indication that Tether is under investigation.Hacker returns most of the $20 million back to drained US government address.Tesla didn't sell any BTC holdings in Q3.Stripe acquires stablecoin platform Bridge for $1.1 billion, which is crypto's largest acquisition.Kraken plans to launch its own chain in early 2025.Uniswap launched permissionless cross-chain bridging on 9 networks.Binance Futures launched perps for meme coins GOAT and MOODENG.
LEGACY MARKETS – DXY

#DXY still keeps strong. However, both crypto (mainly BTC) and equities are still trading near the highs while DXY is very close to range-high at this point.
LEGACY MARKETS – VIX

VIX is still to be kept on the radar with the whole Middle Eastern situation. It caused a quick sell-off last Friday.
BTC WEEKLY VIEW

$BTC is still consolidating near ATHs. For now, it’s a waiting game until the ATHs get taken out and the market resumes the uptrend.
ETH WEEKLY VIEW

$ETH is still in 2.4-2.7 range. With ETH/BTC still struggling to find any sort of relative strength.
ETH/BTC

ETH/BTC is still in a heavy downtrend and struggling to find any relative strength over BTC.
TOTAL3 USD MARKET STRENGTH

Alts are still very sensitive to any kind of BTC down moves. Ideally, this starts receding and the ALT/BTC ratios start to catch some serious strength. For now, however, it’s not the case just yet.
TOTAL3 BTC MARKET STRENGTH

TOTAL3/BTC is still ranging. For a full “Altseason”, a range break to the upside would be the start of a massive trend of altcoin dominance over BTC.
SUMMARY
Altcoins are close but still fail to gain any significant traction relative to BTC. And still take massive drawdowns on the smallest BTC drops.
DISCLAIMER:
The information in this report is for information purposes only and is not to be construed as investment or financial advice. All information contained herein is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell digital assets or other financial products.

LAST WEEK RECAP:

U.S. retail sales increased 0.4% in September, better than 0.3% expected.ECB (European Central Bank) cut 25 bps as expected.Trump’s Polymarket odds reached above 60%, the highest since August.Trump-backed DeFi project World Liberty Financial raised ~$11M.US BTC ETFs recorded 6 consecutive days of inflows.SEC approves spot BTC ETF option trading on NYSE, Cboe.BlackRock in talks with crypto exchanges such as Binance, OKX, and Deribit to integrate BUIDL token as futures collateralRadiant Capital suffered a $50M hack, which is the second hack to the protocol this year, the first hack cost $4.5M.The FBI arrested the man it says hacked the SEC's Twitter and posted the fake spot Bitcoin ETF approval.ApeChain and its official cross-chain bridge have been launched.
LEGACY MARKETS – DXY

DXY had a strong rebound from the lows. With it now trading at mid-range there’s a good chance it slows down a bit. This should give crypto and equities some relief/ more upside.
LEGACY MARKETS – VIX

VIX is showing more and more weakness. Falling below 21 already gave markets some good upside. Ideally, it falls completely back to the 12-14 range.
BTC WEEKLY VIEW

BTC set up a real reversal as discussed last week. With it trading near all-time highs and crypto being seasonality-wise very strong in Q4 it’s likely a matter of time before we break all-time highs.
ETH WEEKLY VIEW

ETH is close to breaking out of the 2.4-2.7k range. With ETH/BTC also finally staying stable while BTC was rallying to 68k it could be time for ETH to finally catch up.
ETH/BTC

ETH/BTC for how weak it’s been was able to hold the lows while BTC was rallying towards 68-69k. This shows there’s finally some underlying stability/relative strength building in the ratio.
TOTAL3 USD MARKET STRENGTH

As mentioned last week, if BTC could stay stable/rally alts would likely start trending. There have been a handful of alts that started and the stronger BTC stays the more likely more will follow.
TOTAL3 BTC MARKET STRENGTH

TOTAL3/BTC is still ranging. For a full “Altseason”, a range break to the upside would be the start of a massive trend of altcoin dominance over BTC.
SUMMARY
ALT/BTC continues to show strength with TOTAL3/BTC being on the brink of a macro reversal.ETH/BTC showing relative strength while Bitcoin is trending for the first time in a while.
DISCLAIMER:
The information in this report is for information purposes only and is not to be construed as investment or financial advice. All information contained herein is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell digital assets or other financial products.

LAST WEEK RECAP:

U.S. CPI increased 0.2% MoM and 2.4% YoY in September, higher than expected 0.1% and 2.3%.U.S. Core CPI increased 0.3% MoM and 3.3% YoY in September, higher than expected 0.2% and 3.2%.U.S. PPI was flat MoM in September, lower than the 0.1% estimated, annual rate is 1.8%.U.S. core PPI was 0.1% MoM in September, lower than the 0.2% estimated, annual rate is 3.2%.U.S. prosecutors charge 4 crypto market makers and employees with market manipulation.Bankruptcy court approved FTX's reorganization plan.~$16 million ETH from the Plus Token scam started moving to exchanges.Uniswap announced plans to launch Unichain, an Ethereum Layer-2 chain.HBO documentary named Peter Todd, a Bitcoin core developer as Satoshi but Peter Todd denied.

LEGACY MARKETS – DXY

DXY had a strong rebound from the lows. With it now trading at mid-range there’s a good chance it slows down a bit. This should give crypto and equities some relief/more upside.
LEGACY MARKETS – VIX

VIX is still chopping around the 21 level. Ideally, it fully retraces to the 14 levels again for further upside.
BTC WEEKLY VIEW

BTC as mentioned last week, the retest of the 60k area could be a first real higher low. With BTC trading higher over the weekend it seems likely we will be testing the first higher high at 66.4k. If BTC manages to break above we have a real reversal on the cards.
ETH WEEKLY VIEW

ETH is still stuck ranging between 2.4-2.7k. For now, the market is still in anticipation of ETH getting real outperformance over BTC.
ETH/BTC

ETH/BTC is still trying to reverse although very sluggish. If it breaks lows here again 0.03 is likely on the table next. If not it could start forming a proper higher time frame reversal.
TOTAL3 USD MARKET STRENGTH

Alts are starting to shape up quite firm. With the consolidation building nicely on the previous high. If BTC can stay stable/have some strength it’s quite likely that the market will start seeing more and more alts rally.
TOTAL3 BTC MARKET STRENGTH

TOTAL3/BTC is trying to break out of the compressed range again. The complete structure of TOTAL3/BTC has been building now since November 2023, if this now finally breaks upwards the real alt season likely happens.
SUMMARY
ALT/BTC continues to show strength with TOTAL3/BTC being on the brink of a macro reversal.
DISCLAIMER:
The information in this report is for information purposes only and is not to be construed as investment or financial advice. All information contained herein is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell digital assets or other financial products.

LAST WEEK RECAP:

U.S. non-farm payrolls increased 254K in September, much higher than the expected 150K. The U.S. unemployment rate dropped to 4.2% in September, lower than the estimated 4.1%.Middle East tensions have intensified between Iran and Israel after Israel launched a ground offensive in Lebanon, and Iran responded by launching 181 ballistic missiles at Israel, marking the largest strike in the ongoing conflict.Bitwise filed first application for XRP ETF.Grayscale introduced the Aave fund.Coinbase to delist USDT in the EU over non-compliance.HBO's upcoming documentary claims to have uncovered the identity of BTC's creator, Satoshi Nakamoto. Currently, Len Sassaman leads the betting market.

LEGACY MARKETS – DXY

DXY rebounded from the lows, which correlated with BTC’s first dip since breaking the macro downtrend. If DXY consolidates/ slows down, $BTC likely makes the first higher lower in anticipation of a real trend reversal.
LEGACY MARKETS – VIX

As mentioned last week, it would likely be ranging if VIX didn’t drop back into the sub-14 area. With the Middle East tension rising, VIX saw yet another pop into the 21 together with DXY strength, creating pressure on Crypto and Equities alike.
BTC WEEKLY VIEW

BTC made its first higher high, and if this 61k retest can become a higher low, the market will have a real reversal on the cards.
ETH WEEKLY VIEW

$ETH is still stuck between 2.4k and 2.7k. The market is still anticipating ETH's real outperformance over BTC.
ETH/BTC

ETH/BTC is still trying to reverse, although very sluggish. If it breaks lows here again, 0.03 is likely on the table next. If not, it could start forming a proper higher time frame reversal.
TOTAL3 USD MARKET STRENGTH

Alts are at the same spot as BTC, trying to make a higher low after breaking the previous high.
TOTAL3 BTC MARKET STRENGTH

TOTAL3/BTC is trying to break out of the compressed range again. The complete structure of TOTAL3/BTC has been building since November 2023. If this now finally breaks upwards, the real alt season likely happens.
SUMMARY
ALT/BTC continues to show strength, with TOTAL3/BTC being on the brink of a macro reversal.ETH ETF inflows are finally picking up fast after the first rate cut. So far, the price is still not reflecting any real outperformance.

LAST WEEK RECAP:
U.S. PCE increased 0.1% MoM in August, the same as estimated. The annual rate is 2.2%, lower than the 2.3% estimated, and is the lowest since Feb 2021.U.S. Core PCE increased by 0.1% MoM, lower than the estimated 0.2%; the annual rate is 2.7%, which is the same as expected.China’s central bank announced its largest stimulus measures since the pandemic, and the Chinese stock market rallied.US GDP grew at a 3% annualized pace in Q2, the same as estimates and the previous value.US BTC ETFs recorded seven consecutive days of inflows.CZ was officially released and mentioned that he will continue to invest in blockchain, decentralized technology, artificial intelligence (AI), and biotech.Ethena Labs announced that the new fiat stablecoin product, UStb, will be fully backed by Blackrock’s BUIDL in partnership with Securitize.Binance launched a pre-market spot trading service.
LEGACY MARKETS – DXY

DXY is still consolidating on a range low, slowly grinding lower. For now, as long as DXY stays in this area, further upside for risk assets should be possible.
LEGACY MARKETS – VIX

VIX is lingering at lower levels but fails to fully fall back in the 12-14 zone. As long as it doesn’t fully fall back in range, assets can be somewhat choppy with small intermediate dips in this initial rotation.
BTC WEEKLY VIEW

BTC is consolidating on the macro market structure break level 64.5 - 65.2k. With the level already broken, though briefly, the market structure is broken, and a trend reversal should be fully confirmed once BTC puts in a higher low. The question is, if it goes higher first before forming a higher low. One thing is sure: the summer slump is definitely over.
ETH WEEKLY VIEW

ETH is finally finding some strength. The ETH/BTC ratio is also finally showing some relative strength and trying to build a reversal. It's early days, but if the ratio reverses, ETH should trade up towards 3.2-3.5k fast.
ETH/BTC

ETH/BTC is starting to build a small reversal. If the relative strength is real, a swift move towards 0.049-0.05 should take place.
TOTAL3 USD MARKET STRENGTH

Alts are at the same spot as BTC, consolidating on the previous high for a market structure break.
TOTAL3 BTC MARKET STRENGTH

TOTAL3/BTC is trying to break out of the compressed range again. Its complete structure has been building since November 2023; if this finally breaks upwards, the real alt season will likely happen.
SUMMARY
ALT/BTC continues to show strength, with TOTAL3/BTC being on the brink of a macro reversal.ETH ETF inflows are finally picking up fast after the first rate cut. So far, the price is also slowly picking up with it, but there is no real acceleration yet.
DISCLAIMER:
The information in this report is for information purposes only and is not to be construed as investment or financial advice. All information contained herein is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell digital assets or other financial products.

LAST WEEK RECAP:

Fed cuts rates by 50 bps at September 2024 meeting.Bank of Japan keeps the rate on hold.SEC approves BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF options.Binance Founder CZ is to be released on September 29.MicroStrategy bought another $458M BTC last week. Currently, it holds 252,220 BTC, which is averaging $39,266.Trump buys burgers with Bitcoin at New York City crypto bar.Harris vows to support AI and crypto industries in a NYC fundraising pitch.
LEGACY MARKETS – DXY

DXY is still consolidating on a range low. With the first rate cut expected this week, volatility will likely pick up.
LEGACY MARKETS – VIX

VIX is lingering at lower levels but still not breaking down fully to 12-14 levels.
BTC WEEKLY VIEW

BTC is about to break market structure for the first time since March. Above 65k, it would be a technical trend reversal.
ETH WEEKLY VIEW

ETH has finally found relative strength, with ETH/BTC even going up when BTC was also going up. However, the ETF inflows are still very low relative to the BTC inflows.
ETH/BTC

ETH/BTC has reclaimed the August lows and is seemingly finally reversing, which should be a positive for the entire alt market.
TOTAL3 USD MARKET STRENGTH

Alts are still building a big base, and some select ones are already rallying. For now, liquidity still centers around select alts.
TOTAL3 BTC MARKET STRENGTH

TOTAL3/BTC is still stable but failing to pick up momentum. However, some select outliers have been rallying. With ETH/BTC starting to reverse TOTAL3/BTC, it will likely also pick up soon.
SUMMARY
ALT/BTC pairs are showing a lot of relative strength. With Q4 seasonality-wise being strong months for altcoins, it seems they’re setting up to repeat that.If BTC can break over 65k, it will finally reverse the market structure and accelerate the market even more.
DISCLAIMER:
The information in this report is for information purposes only and is not to be construed as investment or financial advice. All information contained herein is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell digital assets or other financial products.

This post was prepared by Kairon Labs Trader Patrick Li and Joshua Van de Kerckhove

Edited by: Marianne Dasal

LAST WEEK RECAP:
The U.S. CPI increased 0.2% Month over Month in August, the same as expected. The annual rate is 2.5%, which is lower than the expected 2.6% and the lowest since February 2021.U.S. Core CPI increased 0.3% MoM in August vs. 0.2% expected. And 3.2% YoY, the same as estimates.U.S. PPI increased 0.2% MoM in August, the same as estimates. Core PPI increased by 0.3% MoM, slightly higher than the 0.2% expected. The annual PPI and Core PPI increase was 1.7% and 3.2%, respectively.Most debate watchers agreed Harris outperformed Trump in the U.S. presidential debate, although crypto was not mentioned. Polymarket shows Trump winning odds at 49% and Harris at 51%.Grayscale launched XRP trust in the US.Spot BTC ETF recorded four days of net inflows in the last week.MicroStrategy purchased another 18,300 BTC between August 6 and September 12, an average of $60,408. As for now, MicroStrategy holds 244,800 BTC, an average of $38,585.Binance introduced Hamster Kombat (HMSTR) and Catizen(CATI) on Launchpool.Trump safe after being targeted in a second apparent assassination attempt in Florida.
LEGACY MARKETS – DXY

DXY is still consolidating on a range low. With the first rate cut expected this week, volatility will likely pick up.
LEGACY MARKETS – VIX

VIX has retraced again to levels below 21 after the intermediate spike. This morning, there was a small rise, likely related to the rate cut uncertainty this week.
BTC WEEKLY VIEW

BTC closed right at 59k. Ideally, this bounce leads to a first higher high, and we see a trend reversal from the ranging/downtrend we’ve been in since March.
ETH WEEKLY VIEW

ETH is still a lot weaker than BTC. For now, the effect of the ETF has been weak, and the ETH/BTC ratio is failing to gain any reversal.
ETH/BTC

ETH/BTC is falling back into the previous range. It's already dropping under the August liquidation wick without proper reaction/bounce. The ETH/BTC ratio is still in a heavy downtrend that’s been accelerating since the ETF launch.
TOTAL3 USD MARKET STRENGTH

Alts are still building a big base, and some select ones are already rallying every time BTC stabilizes.
TOTAL3 BTC MARKET STRENGTH

TOTAL3/BTC is still stable but failing to pick up momentum. However, some select outliers have been rallying. To get a wider run, we still think that ETH/BTC needs to pick up strength.
SUMMARY
ALT/BTC pairs are showing a lot of relative strength. With Q4 seasonality-wise being strong months for altcoins, it seems they’re setting up to repeat that, given BTC can stabilize.

LAST WEEK RECAP:

U.S. non-farm payrolls increased 142,000 in August, below the expected 164,000. The U.S. unemployment rate was 4.2% in August, same as estimates.According to ADP, U.S. private payrolls rose by 99K, smallest gain since 2021 and below 114K estimated.VanEck will close Ethereum futures ETF.US BTC ETFs recorded 8 consecutive days of outflows.Uniswap settles with the U.S. CFTC for $175,000 on charges related to derivatives trading.Eigen Foundation announced EIGEN Season 2 Stakedrop.USDT issuer Tether invested $100 million to acquire a 9.8% stake in Latin American agricultural giant Adecoagro.
LEGACY MARKETS – DXY

DXY is consolidating on range low.
LEGACY MARKETS – VIX

As mentioned last week VIX could see smaller spikes. Which it did almost all the way to 24. BTC risked off pretty heavily on Friday.
BTC WEEKLY VIEW

BTC has opened the month of September fairly weak, almost revisiting the lows set in August. For now the ETF flows are following the weakness in stocks. So for BTC to hold up the SP500 will also have to regain strength this week.
ETH WEEKLY VIEW

ETH revisited all the way down to the August low. The low from August is still holding and it’s a common theme for liquidation wicks to get retested with slow chop. If the market is still bullish however crypto should trade upwards in the coming weeks. If the low from August fails the downtrend could continue for quite a while.
ETH/BTC

ETH/BTC is still stabilizing after the August drop. If ETH/BTC is to reverse though it’s going to be from this price range. If it fails and breaks down further it probably trends down all the way back to the lows.
TOTAL3 USD MARKET STRENGTH

Alts are still building base. For so no real updates here. What is noticeable is that as soon as BTC stabilized even for a couple hours last week some alts, especially the binance IEO’s instantly rallied double digit percentages.
TOTAL3 BTC MARKET STRENGTH

TOTAL3/BTC is finally garnering some momentum. As mentioned in TOTAL3 part everytime BTC was stabilizing in the downturn last week select alts started rallying. If BTC could actually garner some upward momentum, a lot of alts could easily rally 100-200%.
SUMMARY
ALT/BTC pairs are showing a lot of relative strength. With Q4 being a strong month for altcoins, it seems they’re setting up to repeat that, given that BTC can stabilize.
DISCLAIMER:
The information in this report is for information purposes only and is not to be construed as investment or financial advice. All information contained herein is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell digital assets or other financial products.

LAST WEEK RECAP:

U.S. Core PCE was 0.2% MoM, in line with estimates, the annual rate is 2.6%, slightly lower than 2.7% estimated.U.S. PCE increased 0.2% MoM and 2.5% YOY, which are the same as estimated.Nvidia shares fell despite second-quarter results slightly beating estimates, as the market expectation was high. Telegram founder Pavel Durov was released from police custody in France on Wednesday and transferred to court. Trump to announce plan making U.S. the ‘Crypto Capital’.OpenSea received Wells notice from SEC.Maker rebrands to SKY protocol, and DAI will be upgradeable to USDS.
LEGACY MARKETS – DXY

DXY is still at a range low. The longer it consolidates on the lows, the better for crypto and equities. If it starts bouncing aggressively, it could put some pressure on crypto and equities.
LEGACY MARKETS – VIX

VIX is still below 21, with some consolidation happening above the previous 12-14 range. This could still lead to small intermediate spikes. However, how much effect those will have after all the big liquidations is a question.
BTC WEEKLY VIEW

BTC closed the monthly over 59k, and after a brief opening below, the market is already trading over 59k again. 59k is now the pivot level. Below it opens up downside till 50-52k, above which we can see all-time highs.
ETH WEEKLY VIEW

ETH is still consolidating and is quite a bit behind BTC. This is also still reflected in the slow trading of the ETH/BTC ratio. After the significant drop, ALT/BTC and ETH/BTC are rotating.
ETH/BTC

ETH/BTC is consolidating after the tag of multi-year support. The ETH/BTC ratio is still trading “slow,” and the market is waiting for this to gain momentum.
TOTAL3 USD MARKET STRENGTH

Alts are still mostly building base. However, there have already been big bounces across the board. If this structure completely vacates, the run-up should lead to an altcoin ATH in marketcap.
TOTAL3 BTC MARKET STRENGTH

TOTAL3/BTC is still flat but holding up well relative to BTC, which indicates underlying alt strength.
SUMMARY
ALT/BTC ratios stayed stable during the significant drop, indicating underlying strength in the altcoin sector against BTC.

DISCLAIMER:
The information in this report is for information purposes only and is not to be construed as investment or financial advice. All information contained herein is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell digital assets or other financial products.

This post was prepared by Kairon Labs Trader Patrick Li and Joshua Van de Kerckhove

Edited by: Marianne Dasal

LAST WEEK RECAP:

Powell indicated cut ahead and mentioned, “The time has come for policy to adjust” at Jackson Hole, though he didn't comment on the exact timing or extent.Telegram CEO Pavel Durov arrested at French airport.Babylon mainnet goes live.Magic Eden announced the launch of its new token, ME.Sony to launch Ethereum L2 Soneium to “realize the open internet".
LEGACY MARKETS – DXY

DXY is right on range low, with crypto and equities seeing quite the upward trust. If DXY consolidates or breaks down out of the range, both equities and crypto have a lot of upside.
LEGACY MARKETS – VIX

VIX is still below 21, with some consolidation happening above the previous 12-14 range. This could still lead to small intermediate spikes. How much effect those will have after all the big liquidations is a question, though.
BTC WEEKLY VIEW

BTC closed above 59k on the weekly chart and is now back in the ATH range, which can likely be reached quite quickly at this point after all the liquidations.
ETH WEEKLY VIEW

ETH/BTC is consolidating after the tag of multi-year support. The ETH/BTC ratio is still trading "slow," but as mentioned last week, if there ever was a point for ETH to take over, it's now. There is underlying strength in ALT/BTC ratios, and the NFT market on ETH is also gaining some strength.
ETH/BTC

ETH/BTC after the tag of multi year support it’s consolidating. ETH/BTC ratio is still trading “slow” but as mentioned last week, if there ever was a point for ETH to take over it’s now. With underlying strength in ALT/BTC ratio’s and also NFT market on ETH gaining some strength.
TOTAL3 USD MARKET STRENGTH

Alts are still mostly building base. However, there have already been big bounces across the board. If this structure completely vacates, the run-up should lead to an altcoin ATH in marketcap.
TOTAL3 BTC MARKET STRENGTH

As mentioned last week, TOTAL3/BTC was/is gaining more and more strength relative to Bitcoin. This is usually where the general "alt season" happens.
SUMMARY
ALT/BTC ratios stayed stable during the significant drop, indicating underlying strength in the altcoin sector against BTC.

DISCLAIMER:
The information in this report is for information purposes only and is not to be construed as investment or financial advice. All information contained herein is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell digital assets or other financial products.

This post was prepared by Kairon Labs Trader Patrick Li and Joshua Van de Kerckhove

Edited by: Marianne Dasal

LAST WEEK RECAP:
U.S. CPI increased 0.2% MoM in July, which is the same as expected; the annual rate is 2.9%, lower than the 3% expected and the lowest since Apr 2021.U.S. Core CPI increased 0.2% MoM and 3.2% YoY, both aligned with expectations.U.S. PPI increased 0.1% MoM in July, less than the 0.2% expected. Core PPI increased by 0.3% MoM, slightly higher than the 0.2% expected. The annual PPI and Core PPI increase was 2.2% and 3.3%, respectively.U.S. retail sales increased 1% in July, much better than 0.3% expected.U.S. weekly jobless claim fell to 227K, less than 234K expected.Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley bought $600 million in Bitcoin ETFs in Q2, according to filingsThe U.S. Government moved 10,000 BTC seized from the Silk Road.MetaMask partnered with Mastercard and Baanx to launch crypto debit card.
LEGACY MARKETS – DXY

DXY is slowly getting back to range lows. It remains to be seen if it actually holds this time.
LEGACY MARKETS – VIX

VIX has completely fallen back below 21. For now, all the panic during the crash seems to have been a single event.
BTC WEEKLY VIEW

BTC is consolidating just under the 59-60k resistance. For now, 59k is still the high level to reclaim on BTC. This opens up the door back to ATHs.
ETH WEEKLY VIEW

ETH is also still consolidating. It seems that after the large drop, many market participants are out of the ETH positioning. From a sentiment perspective, the upside could come quite unexpectedly and catch participants off guard.
ETH/BTC

ETH/BTC is consolidating after the tag of multi-year support. However, if there ever was a point for ETH/BTC to really gain strength on BTC, it’s now. The combination of the ETF launch and a multi-year support level should be quite powerful interaction-wise.
TOTAL3 USD MARKET STRENGTH

Alts are still mostly building a base. Even with the large drop, many of them are still in larger ranges. But it seems the market is in quite a compression at the moment.
TOTAL3 BTC MARKET STRENGTH

TOTAL3/BTC surprisingly didn’t make new lows on the large BTC drop and is seemingly rotating against BTC. Given that BTC will likely range for a while, this opens up a lot of upside on all ALT/BTC pairings.
SUMMARY
ALT/BTC ratios stayed stable during the significant drop, indicating underlying strength in the altcoin sector against BTC.

DISCLAIMER:
The information in this report is for information purposes only and is not to be construed as investment or financial advice. All information contained herein is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell digital assets or other financial products.

This post was prepared by Kairon Labs Trader Patrick Li and Joshua Van de Kerckhove

Edited by: Marianne Dasal

LAST WEEK RECAP:
BTC briefly fell below $50K amid a market crash last Monday, with total crypto market liquidation reaching over $1B, according to Coinglass.Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida said the BoJ won't raise interest rates when financial markets are unstable.U.S. weekly jobless claims fall to 233K, less than 240K expected, which shows a positive sign for the labor market and helped market recovery.U.S. judge fined Ripple $125 million in penalty for improperly selling XRP tokens.U.S. judge approved the $12.7 billion settlement between FTX and CFTC.Grayscale launches new crypto investment trusts for SUI and TAO.
LEGACY MARKETS – DXY

DXY dropped to near-range lows after last week's events. From the macro perspective, it’s still within the range of 100-106.
LEGACY MARKETS – VIX

VIX had a complete blowout due to the convergence of Middle Eastern tension and fears of FED cutting too late. At this point it's back trading near 21 levels. With all the uncertainty currently, it could range a while in the 21 area, creating a ranging environment for most assets. However, if it bleeds completely back down to the lows, there's a good chance many assets will pick right back up.
BTC WEEKLY VIEW

BTC saw a large capitulation into 50k. The weekly mostly recovered but failed to convincingly close over 59k, which technically means that the new range is still 52-59k. However, after such large capitulation events, it could be that we chop a while longer, right under 59k. If 59k gets reclaimed, it opens the door back open to ATHs.
ETH WEEKLY VIEW

ETH seems to be repeating the post-BTC ETF launch price action. With grayscale outflows slowly decreasing, it makes sense for the ETF flows to slowly start affecting the PA more positively. ETH/BTC also dropped into major support.
ETH/BTC

ETH/BTC saw yet another low. However, this time, it tagged multi-year support, so the probability of reversal here should be quite high.
TOTAL3 USD MARKET STRENGTH

Alts are still mostly building base. Even with the large drop, a lot of them are still in larger ranges.
TOTAL3 BTC MARKET STRENGTH

TOTAL3/BTC surprisingly didn’t make new lows on the large BTC drop and is seemingly rotating against BTC. Given that BTC will likely range for a while, this opens up a lot of upside on all ALT/BTC pairings.
SUMMARY
ALT/BTC ratios stayed stable during the large drop, indicating underlying strength in the altcoin sector against BTC.

DISCLAIMER:
The information in this report is for information purposes only and is not to be construed as investment or financial advice. All information contained herein is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell digital assets or other financial products.

This post was prepared by Kairon Labs Trader Patrick Li and Joshua Van de Kerckhove

Edited by: Marianne Dasal

LAST WEEK RECAP:
U.S. PCE increased 0.3% MoM and 2.7% YoY, both in line with estimates.U.S. core PCE increased by 0.2% MoM, the same as estimated but lower than the previous 0.3%; the annual rate is 2.8%, which aligns with the estimate.Blackrock filed an updated S1 for its spot $ETH ETF to SEC.Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas called the updated S-1 a “good sign,” adding that a launch by the end of June was “a legit possibility.”US BTC ETFs recorded 14 consecutive days of inflows.Upbit listed Bounce, StarGate, and BEAM.Mt.Gox moved nearly 107K BTC as part of the repayment part but with no immediate selling pressure.Japanese crypto exchange DMM Bitcoin was hacked — 4,502.9 BTC ($305 million) stolen.Biden vetoed bill (overturning SAB121) that allows highly regulated financial firms to hold Bitcoin and crypto.
LEGACY MARKETS – DXY

#DXY is still trading within the large 100-106 range. As long as it doesn't break out over the 106-108 area, crypto and equities should have fairly good odds to keep on trending.
LEGACY MARKETS – VIX

#VIX has seen a little rally last week. It's always important to keep it on the radar. For now, it’s more likely to stay in the range of 12-14.
BTC WEEKLY VIEW

$BTC is still in consolidation on ATHs. Within the large consolidation, we now have a small compression right under the highs. This usually leads to volatility up or down, and it will likely happen sooner rather than later.
ETH WEEKLY VIEW

It's the same thing for ETH consolidation right under resistance. With the relative strength now in ETH/BTC, a break over 4K again will likely lead ETH to ATHs.
ETH/BTC

ETH/BTC is consolidating right on the downtrend angle. With everything going in ETH's favor at the moment, it's likely we will see trend continuation.
TOTAL3 USD MARKET STRENGTH

Alts are slowly rotating upwards. They will likely accelerate once ETH and BTC confirm actual breakouts instead of current consolidations just under the highs.
TOTAL3 BTC MARKET STRENGTH

TOTAL3/BTC is still working on rotating the downtrend relatively to BTC. With ETH now outperforming on the likelihood of ETF approval, it's only a matter of time before this also starts running.
SUMMARY
Expect volatility to pick up on BTC and ETH this week.Altcoins are heating up again with BTC and ETH close to a breakout.
DISCLAIMER:
The information in this report is for information purposes only and is not to be construed as investment or financial advice. All information contained herein is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell digital assets or other financial products.

LAST WEEK RECAP:
The SEC has approved Form 19b-4 for eight Ethereum ETF issuers, which gives the green light for ETF ETF to launch; the approval also implies that the SEC explicitly recognizes ETH as not a security.While the 19b-4s have been approved, ETF issuers still need the SEC to sign off on their respective S-1 registration statements for the spot Ether ETFs to begin trading officially.U.S. House approved crypto FIT21 bill with Democratic support.Nvidia passed $1,000 after earning beat and announced a 10-for-1 stock split and an increased dividend.Binance stated that it prioritizes small and medium crypto projects in response to the problems caused by listing high FDV and low-circulation tokens.Trump's campaign started taking crypto donations.
LEGACY MARKETS – DXY

DXY is still trading within the large 100-106 range. As long as it doesn't break out over the 106-108 area, crypto and equities should have good odds of staying on trend.
LEGACY MARKETS – VIX

VIX is still bleeding lower, having reached yearly lows and levels not seen since the pre-COVID crash.
BTC WEEKLY VIEW

BTC is still in consolidation on ATHs. With the election approaching and both parties seemingly using crypto as a lever for votes, the market should keep a close eye on any serious comments on BTC, which could cause huge price movements.
ETH WEEKLY VIEW

After a surprise ETF approval caught the market off guard, ETH is almost back at yearly highs. With underlying strength finally in the ETH/BTC ratio, we will likely see ETH trending into ATHs before the ETFs go live.
ETH/BTC

As mentioned, ETH/BTC was waiting on the ETF news; with the ETF being approved, it almost rallied to new yearly highs and has broken the downtrend. With ETH/BTC rallying one can expect ETH onchain price action also picking up again.
TOTAL3 USD MARKET STRENGTH

With ETH taking center stage, likely, the general alt market will momentarily lag, and ETH sucks up most of the liquidity. Later on, the market will likely play the typical catch-up move.
TOTAL3 BTC MARKET STRENGTH

TOTAL3/BTC is still working on rotating the downtrend relative to BTC. With ETH now outperforming on the likelihood of ETF approval, it’s only a matter of time before this also starts running.
SUMMARY
ETH ETF gets a surprise approval.With elections later this year, crypto has become a political tool. The market should keep a close eye on this whenever Trump or Biden speak for their campaigns.
DISCLAIMER:
The information in this report is for information purposes only and is not to be construed as investment or financial advice. All information contained herein is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell digital assets or other financial products.