BIG 🚨 Federal Reserve Decision Day 97.8 Percent Chance of a Rate Cut Incoming

According to CME data the market is now pricing in a massive 97.8 percent probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25bps today

That is almost as close to a sure thing as it gets in macro but here is where things get interesting

My Take

I have been following this cycle closely and this meeting feels different

After months of inflation cooling and growth showing mixed signals this cut could mark a real turning point

It could be the first step toward an easing cycle after one of the most aggressive tightening periods in history

If the Fed does cut rates

Crypto liquidity is oxygen for digital assets

A 25bps cut signals the start of an easier environment and risk assets like BTC and ETH could rally hard

The market might see this as the Fed finally blinking opening the door for multi month upside in crypto

My personal expectation is that Bitcoin could test 118000 to 120000 within weeks if the sentiment turns risk on

Gold would also surge as lower rates weaken the dollar and make non yielding assets more attractive

If they only cut by 20bps a surprise move

That would show hesitation and a cautious attempt to ease without looking too dovish

Markets might react with confusion at first leading to volatility

Crypto could spike briefly but fade fast if the Fed looks unsure about committing to more easing

If the Fed does not cut rates

Then things flip completely

The market is fully priced for a cut so a hold would be a shock

Crypto would likely see a sharp pullback BTC could fall to the 108000 to 110000 range as risk sentiment fades

Gold might drop short term as yields rise but could rebound later as safe haven demand increases

Stocks would likely turn red since traders hate surprises and this would be one