SBF Pardon Probability Jumps to 16% — Polymarket & Kalshi Data Sparks Attention

Following Trump’s pardon of CZ, speculation around SBF’s potential pardon has intensified. Prediction data shows:

Polymarket: 12% probability

Kalshi: 16% probability

Remarkably, within just five hours after CZ’s pardon, Kalshi’s probability jumped from 4% to 16%, highlighting how quickly the market is adjusting expectations.

However, 16% remains relatively low. The scale and complexity of SBF’s case differ significantly from CZ’s, with a broader range of victims and much more complicated legal circumstances.

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