💡 What Robin’s Charts Really Reveal About the USD Shift!

Global reserve managers are quietly redrawing the currency map — and it’s not your typical “de-dollarization” story. The truth is more nuanced, and Robin’s charts tell it loud and clear.

Yes, central banks are trimming USD exposure — but it’s not a panic move. It’s a long-term recalibration driven by post-’22 sanctions risk, ballooning US fiscal debt, and a global mandate to diversify holdings. Yet, despite all the noise, the euro isn’t the beneficiary. Europe’s energy vulnerabilities, fragmented fiscal system, and lack of deep safe assets keep the EUR’s share stagnant.

So who’s winning? The “liquid, commodity-backed, policy-credible” currencies. Think AUD, CAD, JPY, CHF — even selective “Others” like SGD, NOK, and SEK — all gaining quiet ground as central banks hedge against US-centric risks. China’s CNY is in the mix, but capital controls keep its ceiling low.

The key insight? De-dollarization doesn’t mean a weak dollar. The DXY can stay firm as long as US growth and real yields remain dominant. The stock of reserves rotates slowly — but when global risk flares, dollar demand still spikes.

🔍 Watchlist for the next move:

• COFER’s Q3/Q4 data for valuation-adjusted reserve shares.

• Treasury auction trends and indirect bids.

• Progress on alternative payment rails like CIPS and SPFS.

• Energy trade dynamics — key for AUD/CAD/NOK strength.

• ECB’s safe-asset push — the only real EUR catalyst.

Smart positioning? Barbell it. Keep USD T-bills for liquidity and add reserve-winner FX (AUD/CAD/SGD/NOK) alongside gold — the timeless, sanction-proof store of value. Stay nimble with CNY; policy bands still rule that game.

#MacroWatch #DeDollarization #Commodities

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