Bitcoin Price, Active Users, and Metcalfe’s Law: Projecting $1.7M per Coin at 200 Million Users
According to Fred Krueger analysis, the price of Bitcoin tends to follow a quadratic relationship with its number of active users, as described by Metcalfe’s Law, which states that the value of a network grows proportionally to the square of its user base. Current estimates place global active Bitcoin users at around 50 million; if this figure rises to 200 million, Metcalfe’s Law would mathematically project a price near $1.7 million per BTC. This quadratic user-growth relationship aligns with historical statistical data and price trends observed in major network-driven assets.
Such quadratic growth is also mirrored in Automated Market Maker (AMM) models like Uniswap, where liquidity curves and network effects compound value exponentially as participation grows. Overall, this framework reinforces why both onchain analytics and user adoption remain core to understanding Bitcoin’s long-term price dynamics.
