🚀 Dogecoin’s $1 Dream: The Path to a Historic Breakout
He presented statistics showing that Dogecoin's next parabolic wave is unlikely until Ethereum breaks significantly to new highs and the halving-cycle timing extension and global M2 liquidity backdrop remain supportive. He says that Bitcoin dominance bounced again, preventing a wide altcoin surge.
Ethereum made a new cycle high and cleared $4,000, but it currently sits below the remaining two technical obstacles from 2021—“the 2021 high in May and the 2021 high, which is the all-time high.” He states, “Once ETH breaks this high, ETH has officially gone onto a bull market.” He considers “Doge to the moon” discussion premature until such confirmation comes.
In his assessment, Dogecoin is in a wide, lumpy accumulation, a bottoming process that may involve fakeouts on both sides, rather than an upswing. Even in a positive scenario, larger circumstances failing might force “one more” negative sweep before any altseason.
Timing is his second analytical pillar. In previous cycles, the 486-day mark after the last Bitcoin halving was a turning point. “We are nearing the end of the bull-run in 2021... 486 days from the halving,” he says, recalling that both cycles ended with a large correction and a rally around that window.
He believes liquidity—through the popular M2 money supply overlay—is beneficial but not decisive. “Everyone and their mother” watches M2, which “says there is a chance for a rally in this time period.” He notes that M2 had risen even while crypto fell in the past. The pragmatic and non-dogmatic message is “We'll use it until it doesn't work,” but it doesn't ensure a bull run.
He derives a clear gating function for Dogecoin's headline aim from this macro-and-liquidity scaffold. A continuous climb toward $1 requires three conditions: To validate a bull market, Ethereum must break above its 2021 highs, the halving-cycle "extension" window must open, and global M2 growth must remain supportive to maintain risk appetite.
#DOGE #ETH4500Next? $DOGE
